Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
108 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC AND A
TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LIGHT STEERING FLOW KEEPING STORM MOVEMENT SLOW AND FOCUSED MAINLY
ON THE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE
IN THE EVENING...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
EASTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY STALLS ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SE US
NORTH OF FLORIDA AND UP THE EASTERN US COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE FL STRAITS FOR SAT AND SUN. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME SW AT THE SURFACE WITH THE STEERING FLOW
ALSO INCREASING FROM THE S/SW AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN US SAT AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE SUN. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP TIMING
ADJUSTING A FEW HOURS EARLIER DUE TO THE S/SW FLOW. HAVE KEPT SCT-
NUMEROUS STORMS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOWER POPS
TO THE NORTH AS WILL HAVE A BIT LESS MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-NEAR
90 AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-FRI)...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL START OUT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
THEN SHIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTH AND THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE BEST TIMING OF CONVECTION FROM MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY TO AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION (40 TO 50 POPS) EACH DAY.
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY AND
THIS MAY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES... BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME WARM OVERNIGHT READINGS NEAR
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE WARM
GULF KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH WINDS
STAYING AOB 15 KNOTS AND SEAS AOB 4 FEET THROUGH THE TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY EVENING
CAUSING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.  OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AS
CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AND MOVES OUT INTO GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  76  89 /  30  60  30  50
FMY  74  89  75  90 /  40  70  30  60
GIF  74  90  75  90 /  30  70  40  60
SRQ  75  88  76  88 /  30  60  30  50
BKV  72  90  73  89 /  30  50  30  50
SPG  78  89  79  89 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...24
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
515 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-211515-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-
515 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TODAY OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF TAMPA...AND NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY AND
SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES AS SEVERAL
ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BREEZE CONVERGENCE. WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS PEOPLE IN THE AFFECTED AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE DEADLY LIGHTNING. SMALL TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
HEAVY RAINS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLOODING WITH TOTALS
AT 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING SCATTERED ON MONDAY AND BEYOND.
ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL SIZE
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PHONE IN RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HEAVIER STORMS TODAY...OR ANY SIGHTINGS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS.

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