Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
152 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUN)...GFS/NAM(WRF)/ECMWF/UKMET IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS IN THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...THE EAST COAST U.S. TROUGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH ITS SOUTHERN MOST END SWEEPING ACROSS THE
STATE. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...TO THE EAST GULF
COAST SAT AND THE SE U.S. INCLUDING FL BY SUN. AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO NY & PA BY SAT...
RIDGING SOUTH TO THE GULF AND HELPING TO PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL FL SOUTHWARD. ON SUN THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH BOUNDARY ENDING UP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FL
OR THE KEYS. RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND SURFACE WILL HOLD SWAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER (NOT DRY) AIR WORKING IN. POPS
WILL TREND DOWN FROM NORTH (ISOLATED) TO SOUTH (MID SCATTERED RANGE)
SAT AND THEN 10 TO 30 PERCENT...NORTH TO SOUTH...SUN. SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BUT MINS WILL STAY AROUND CLIMO AND RANGE
FROM UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW/MID 70S SOUTH. HOWEVER THIS COOLER AIR
WILL BE OFFSET BY RIDGING ALOFT WITH MAXES JUST ABOVE NORMAL. AND
FINALLY...THE NORTH WILL SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG BUT THIS SHOULD
JUST BE PATCHY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...THE GFS MODEL...AND PERHAPS
OTHERS...APPEARS TO BE HAVING ITS SEASONAL TRANSITION ISSUES AS
WESTERLIES BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S. AND
GENERALLY LOW TO MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGES AND TROUGHS PLAY HAVOC
WITH TIMING...LOCATION...AND INTENSITY OF EACH SYSTEM.  IN
SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED (DAYS 3 AND
4) IS FAIRLY HIGH BUT FALLS SHARPLY FROM DAY 5 AND BEYOND...SO
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

GENERALLY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND REMAINING DRY CONDITIONS FROM THIS
WEEKEND HANG ON.  BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO RAPIDLY APPROACH NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA.  OWING TO PREVIOUS OPTIMISTIC FORECAST AND STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...HAVE ONLY NUDGED UP RAIN CHANCES AND
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT.

THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT ON
DAY 5 (WEDNESDAY)...SPEEDING UP THE NEXT TROUGH PASSAGE AND NOW
IMPLYING A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING AND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  FOR
NOW...HAVE CLEARED THINGS OUT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...BUT LEFT SOME PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD...AGAIN OWING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A 6 HOUR SLOW DOWN IN
LATER RUNS.

FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH LAST TWO GFS RUNS ARE VERY DRY BUT RATHER
HOT...IM STILL HOLDING ONTO SLIGHT CHANCES CENTRAL AND SOUTH GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR MORE MODEL ADJUSTMENTS AS THE NEXT TROUGH/RIDGE
COUPLET MOVES THROUGH.  ALL BETS ARE OFF FRIDAY AS THE 06Z GFS
COMPLETELY FLIPPED FROM A FLAT RIDGE AT 00Z TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
500 MB TROUGH  THE 12Z RUN HAS COME BACK TO THE FLAT RIDGE SOLUTION
FOR NOW...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK IN THE LOWER 90S...PERHAPS HIGHER
GIVEN LACK OF DAYTIME RAIN AND MAY END THE WEEK SIMILARLY BUT FOR
NOW HAVE GONE WITH 90 GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE.

UPPER 80S...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND JUST A HAIR UNDER NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS 10KT/2FT OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
NE AND EAST WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA SLOWLY SETTLES IN OVER THE STATE AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP MIDWEEK...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...ITS BEEN A QUIET DAY SO FAR...WITH THE ONLY BLIP A CELL
ALONG THE BAY/GULF BREEZE INTERACTION IN ST. PETE...SOUTH OF KPIE.
OTHER CELLS MAY AFFECT KRSW AND PERHAPS KFMY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY TEMPO SO HAVE OPTED FOR VCTS.  OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  91  76  91 /  10  30  10  20
FMY  75  91  75  91 /  20  40  20  30
GIF  74  92  73  92 /  10  30  10  20
SRQ  75  90  74  90 /  10  30  10  20
BKV  70  91  68  91 /  10  20   5  10
SPG  79  91  78  90 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...09
LONG TERM/AVIATION...88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
501 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-151300-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
501 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE GREATEST HAZARD WITH THE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW
LYING AREAS.  SMALL STREAMS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED BANK FULL.

OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS
TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL
THE STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
329 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006

FLZ062-065-152030-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
329 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF CHARLOTTE AND
NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTIES...

A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH...WILL
AFFECT THE MENTIONED AREA INCLUDING CLEVELAND...BABCOCK
RANCH...TUCKERS CORNER AND FORT MYERS SHORES...UNTIL 430 PM EDT.
 GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS MUST EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING UNDER
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA SPACE BETWEEN VEHICLES.
EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

AR