Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

.SHORT TERM (TON-TUE)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY.  BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST ON
TUESDAY.  GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL ATTM TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD CONSENSUS MOVING THE SYSTEM
GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST.  THIS WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY...SO WILL
GO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS TUESDAY THAN MAV GUIDANCE.  BUT WILL
HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS POPS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON TRACK SYSTEM TAKES.  IF IT DOES TRACK NORTH PER THE GFS
SOLUTION...IT WOULD ADVECT DRIER AIR DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH WOULD DECREASE
POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SUN)...PROBLEMATIC FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ON THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF
FLORIDA. THE GFS HAS A WEAK LOW THAT ENDS UP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES SOUTHWARD AND MEANDERS TO THE NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT WELL EAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NAM/DGEX SOLUTION TAKES A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE
BAHAMAS...THEN TURNS IT WEST AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL OR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME I PREFER TO SHOW
A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS
NEAR OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...THEN ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TIME FRAME.

ASSUMING WE DONT SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE EAST
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST...BUT RETURN SOUTHEAST
FLOW EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL SHIFT INLAND BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MARCHES SWIFTLY TO THE
EAST...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME BRIEF MFVR CONDITIONS AT LOCAL
TERMINALS AS LIGHTER SHOWERS MOVE IN OFF THE GULF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  90  77  90 /  30  60  30  60
FMY  77  92  76  91 /  30  70  30  60
GIF  75  92  74  90 /  30  60  30  60
SRQ  78  90  78  89 /  30  60  30  60
BKV  73  91  72  91 /  30  60  20  50
SPG  81  90  80  89 /  30  60  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
505 AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048-131400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
505 AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NATURE COAST.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO THE NATURE COAST LATER TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS. IF LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED OR THUNDER IS HEARD MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS STALLED FRONT ALONG
WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUING TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FLZ049>052-055>057-060-061-131400-
PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-
505 AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS. IF LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED OR THUNDER IS HEARD MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS STALLED FRONT ALONG
WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUING TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

FLZ062-065-131400-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
505 AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS. IF LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED OR THUNDER IS HEARD MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS STALLED FRONT ALONG WITH
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUING TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

JCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
313 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

FLZ043-052-131945-
POLK-SUMTER-
313 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER THE GREEN SWAMP IN SOUTHERN SUMTER
COUNTY EDGING TOWARD NORTHERN POLK COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM...DRIFTING SOUTH AT AROUND 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE
GREEN SWAMP ALONG COUNTY ROAD 471...UNTIL 345 PM EDT. THE STORM WILL
DEVELOP TOWARD NORTHERN POLK COUNTY...INCLUDING HIGHWAY 98 IN RURAL
AREAS. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. HAIL UP TO
ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
355 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

FLZ051-132030-
HILLSBOROUGH-
355 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO POUND LITHIA PINECREST AND
SPREAD TOWARD RIVERVIEW AND BRANDON...

A THUNDERSTORM...STATIONARY BUT DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...WILL AFFECT LITHIA AND BLOOMINGDALE...UNTIL 430 PM EDT.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES...AND
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL EXCEED 2 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS. MOTORISTS
MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL.
&&
STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION INCLUDING URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES UNTIL 430 PM.

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
418 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

FLZ042-132100-
CITRUS-
418 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CITRUS COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT INVERNESS
AND HIGHWAY 200...UNTIL 500 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...
CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY
PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
432 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

FLZ051-132115-
HILLSBOROUGH-
432 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO AFFECT AND DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DUMP TORRENTIAL RAINS IN THE LITHIA
PINECREST PORTION OF HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTH
BRANDON...BLOOMINGDALE...AND BOYETTE.  RADAR HAS ESTIMATED AT LEAST
3 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE STORMS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER 5 PM.  IN ADDITION TO THE
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE.  A RESIDENT OF LITHIA REPORTED
LIMBS DOWN AND A BRIEF POWER OUTAGE AT AROUND 4 PM.  OTHER STRONG
STORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THONOTOSASSA.  BOUNDARIES FROM EACH OF
THESE CLUSTERS WERE SPREADING TO THE NORTHWEST...AND TEMPLE TERRACE
AND SUBDIVISIONS EAST OF I 75 WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN BEFORE 515 PM.

GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.
MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL
ITEMS.  THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL.
&&
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WAIT UNTIL WELL AFTER THE STORMS HAVE ENDED
BEFORE VENTURING OUT.

BSG

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