Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...

.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...A COLD POOL ALOFT (SUPPORTING STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WITH SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND OR HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
BY LATE EVENING EXPECT THINGS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS THE CONVECTION
ENDS OR DRIFTS WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER
LOW.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST OVER THE
GULF AS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS MOVES WEST JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL CUBA
VIA LATEST TPC TRACK. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (CLIMO-LEVEL POPS) ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW CIRCULATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS

DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL AGAIN WIND DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS ENTERING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST DEEP LAYERED SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DIURNAL MESOSCALE DRIVEN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND
WILL MAINTAIN CLIMO-LEVEL (50%) IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAV/MET NUMBERS
ARE AGAIN CLOSE AND A BLEND SHOULD SUFFICE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM(SUN NIGHT-FRI)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER
NORTH FLORIDA/SOUTH GEORGIA AS TC CHRIS MOVES INTO THE ERN GULF AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. AS CHRIS MOVES FURTHER WEST...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ABLE TO SLIP BACK SOUTH...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN
OVER S FL BY FRI. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE
BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL PULL IN SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE
STATE...REDUCING THE RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE. HAVE GONE LOW END SCT
POPS FOR THAT DAY. MOISTURE RETURNS AGAIN AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THU AND FRI.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO GO
TO ABOVE ON WED SHUD THE DRY AIR MOVING IN LOOK MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEA STATES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL DEPICT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND/SEAS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME AS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS
MOVES WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. WIND/SEAS WILL AGAIN DECREASE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...TSTMS GETTING OFF TO AN EARLIER START TODAY FROM KSRQ
SOUTH AND OVER THE NATURE COAST. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE S OF KSRQ LATER THAN
IN CURRENT TAFS. AFTN SHIFT MAY HAVE TO EXTEND CURRENT TEMPO GROUPS
IF IF STORMS CONTINUE. BY LATE EVENING...CONDITIONS AREAWIDE SHUD
GET BACK TO VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  78  93 /  30  50  30  50
FMY  75  95  76  92 /  30  50  30  50
GIF  75  94  76  93 /  30  50  30  50
SRQ  76  92  75  92 /  30  50  30  50
BKV  72  93  72  93 /  30  50  30  50
SPG  79  93  80  92 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JCM
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1025 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-042100-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
1025 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF MELBOURNE LATE THIS THIS MORNING
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF DURING TONIGHT. A VERY
MOIST AND HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM...SOME
POSSIBLY STRONG OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE VERY
HEAVY DOWN POURS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL. THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. ALL RESIDENTS
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD BE ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION CHRIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL CUBA. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUNDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ENTERS
THE GULF. CHRIS IS NOT FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DRIER AIR
INTO WEST FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...FORECAST MODELS SHOW CHRIS
AS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TO
ONE MORE TYPICAL OF A FLORIDA SUMMER WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

JCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1233 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

FLZ055-060-041715-
MANATEE-SARASOTA-
1233 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN MANATEE AND NORTHWEST
SARASOTA COUNTIES...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT WEST SAMOSET...
SARASOTA BRADENTON AIRPORT...SARASOTA AND SAMOSET...UNTIL 115 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.
MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS
CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
134 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

FLZ042-041815-
CITRUS-
134 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST CITRUS COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT INVERNESS
HERNANDO AND BEVERLY HILLS...UNTIL 215 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50
MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE
LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

FLZ050-041830-
PINELLAS-
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT PINELLAS PARK...
LEALMAN...LARGO...CLEARWATER...SAFETY HARBOR... AND KENNETH
CITY...UNTIL 230 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

FLZ051-041830-
HILLSBOROUGH-
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT RIVERVIEW...
BLOOMINGDALE...BRANDON AND VALRICO...UNTIL 230 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40
TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO
TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS. PEA SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM
OVER VALRICO. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
208 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

FLZ049-052-041900-
POLK-PASCO-
208 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN PASCO AND
NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT
ZEPHYRHILLS...UNTIL 300 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

22

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
219 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

FLZ051-052-041915-
POLK-HILLSBOROUGH-
219 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NOW AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH
COUNTY AND MOVING INTO WESTERN POLK COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE
MENTIONED AREA INCLUDING WILLOW OAK...BRADLEY JUNCTION AND
MULBERRY...UNTIL 315 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

22