Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE HANDLING OF
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO WILL USE A BLEND.
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION (BEST COVERAGE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES)...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN
AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW NOW OVER THE BAHAMAS DRIFTS WEST OVERNIGHT...MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOP...SO WILL RETAIN A 20% POP MENTION OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST INTO THE EASTERN
GULF AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS ABOUT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPS (-8 TO -9C AT 50H) SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR CLIMO-LEVEL (50-60% RANGE)
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...AND AROUND 40% FAR NORTH WHERE A BIT
DRIER AIR WILL STILL RESIDE. SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS
SOME OF THE T-STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND OR SOME HAIL.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER TO
THE WEST OVER THE GULF AS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS MOVES WEST TO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING
AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF CHRIS
MAY KEEP COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THAN FRIDAY...SO WILL DEPICT POPS JUST
BELOW CLIMO (40%) FOR ALL ZONES. OVERNIGHT LOW AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAV/MET
NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM(SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...TROPICAL WAVE/CYCLONE CHRIS
WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE REGION SUN THRU TUE. THE STRENGTH
OF THE RESULTING ERLY WINDS WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG CHRIS GETS IF
IT DOES REDEVELOP. WITH STRONGER WINDS...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WOULD
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR WOULD BE SOME DRY
AIR COMING IN JUST NORTH OF CHRIS. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL POPS SUN AND MON. EXPECT WHATEVER REMAINS OF CHRIS TO BE FURTHER
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUE...AND THUS ALLOW FOR BETTER INLAND PENETRATION
OF THE SEA BREEZE. STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE DRY AIR COMING
IN BEHIND CHRIS...AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT 40 PCT FOR NOW.

FOR WED AND THU...GFS AND ECMWF HINTING AT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NE U.S. DROPPING SOUTH AND COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH. DGEX
PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE...INSTEAD HAVING A SFC TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND BRINGING IN DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP GOING WITH VALUES AT 40 PCT AREAWIDE...WHICH
IS AROUND CLIMO FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL FL AND A LITTLE BELOW FOR SW FL.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL
SUPPORT A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH AND A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. BEYOND
THIS WIND/SEA FORECAST WILL ALL HINGE ON HOW T.S. CHRIS EVOLVES AND
HOW CLOSE IT WILL COME TO THE COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TPC
TRACK OF CHRIS WILL ONLY SHOW A SLOW INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS DURING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DECREASING WIND/SEAS ON TUESDAY. FOR THE
LATEST ON T.S. CHRIS SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION...NICE CLOUD FIELD DEVELOPING AREAWIDE...AND EXPECT SCT
TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH BEST COVERAGE DOWN SOUTH. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE...AS WELL
AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. BY 02Z ACTIVITY
SHUD BE WINDING DOWN...SAVE FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  78  94 /  20  50  30  40
FMY  75  94  74  94 /  20  60  30  40
GIF  77  95  75  95 /  20  50  30  40
SRQ  76  91  76  92 /  20  50  30  40
BKV  71  93  72  94 /  10  40  20  40
SPG  80  92  79  93 /  20  50  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JCM
AVIATION...RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
332 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-031345-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
332 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED NORTH OF LINE FROM A
BROOKSVILLE TO THE VILLAGES. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORT MYERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
STORMS EXPECTED. OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS AND LIFTING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE FRONTS WILL PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 4.

HEAVY DOWN POURS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. HEAVY DOWNPOUR WILL CAUSE
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DRY AIR COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY IF THE TRACK OF TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AS EXPECTED. THIS WOULD
LESSEN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS FOR SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...HEAVY
DOWN POURS..AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NOAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
158 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

FLZ050-031845-
PINELLAS-
158 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PINELLAS COUNTY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT PINELLAS
PARK...LARGO...LEALMAN...KENNETH CITY AND SEMINOLE...UNTIL 245 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

JCM