Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-WED)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH REACHING THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING
WELL INLAND LEADING TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WHERE
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING THEN BECOMING SCATTERED AND PUSHING
WELL INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
FLORIDA WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES AND RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A DECENT
SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.  THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AND SHOULD PUSH INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.  PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA
BREEZES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S...EXCEPT UPPER 80S ALONG THE GULF
COAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM (WED NGT-MON)...RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
GENERALLY REMAINING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.  THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING EACH DAY.  AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...WITH ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.MARINE...FLOW WILL BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS NORTH THEN BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED...EXCEPT MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  77  91 /  20  30  20  40
FMY  75  93  75  93 /  20  40  20  50
GIF  75  93  75  93 /  20  40  20  40
SRQ  76  91  76  91 /  20  30  20  40
BKV  73  92  73  92 /  20  40  20  40
SPG  80  91  79  91 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE....PRC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JLC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
455 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-241800-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
455 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
ISOLATED STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD...THE RAIN
SHOULD MOVE INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTAIN EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IF YOU SEE THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHING...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IN A STURDY STRUCTURE. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. NEVER
CROSS AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS..AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
319 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

FLZ052-241945-
POLK-
319 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

...FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN POLK COUNTY...

AT 319 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD...9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF POLK CITY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY AFFECT...
  RURAL NORTHERN POLK COUNTY.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN BECOME BRIEF...SMALL...BUT DANGEROUS TORNADOES.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2834 8196 2821 8197 2822 8169 2837 8174

55

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
349 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

FLZ051-052-242030-
POLK-HILLSBOROUGH-
349 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN POLK AND NORTHEAST
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT
WINSTON...PLANT CITY...LAKELAND...UNTIL 430 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

RJS

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