Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
123 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOUND SOUTH OF A PUNTA
GORDA TO ORLANDO LINE MOVING NORTHWEST. ISOLATED STORMS WERE
FOUND NEAR CEDAR KEY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

.SHORT TERM (TGT-SAT)...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED DRY AIR CONTINUING
TO MARCH SOUTH AND NOT STALLING LIKE EXPECTED. IT HAS TO END
SOMETIME SOON AS IT COLLIDES WITH TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE LIMITED CONVECTION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 THIS EVENING...
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. EXPECT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS GET GOING. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS TO DIMINISH OR PUSH OFFSHORE.

GFS AND THE GFS MOS TAKES CLOUDS/RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR MIAMI AND PARKS IT OVER FORECAST AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. WILL FORECAST BREAKS OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN UPPER
80S...BUT WILL KEEP HIGH POPS.

A CHANGE IS THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO EASTERN U.S. WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS
WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL LEAD
TO NIGHT/MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BEFORE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SAT NGT-THU)...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. INTO TUESDAY THEN RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL START OUT SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY THEN
BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND
THEN NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTH AND THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE THE BEST TIMING OF CONVECTION FROM MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION (40 TO 50 POPS) EACH DAY THEN SOME
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.  HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME WARM OVERNIGHT
READINGS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE WARM GULF KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCE FOR WATER SPOUTS ON
SATURDAY MORNING NEAR THE COAST DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING CAUSING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.  VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AS
CONVECTION WINDS DOWN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING MOISTURE AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN MEANS
NO PROBLEMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  76  88 /  40  60  40  60
FMY  74  88  75  89 /  50  70  50  60
GIF  74  88  75  89 /  40  50  30  60
SRQ  75  87  75  88 /  50  60  40  60
BKV  72  88  72  88 /  30  50  30  50
SPG  78  88  78  88 /  40  60  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...NOAH
LONG TERM....PRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
508 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-201415-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
508 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. MOTION ON THESE STORMS WILL BE
SLOW INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS PONDING ON ROADWAYS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR FUNNEL CLOUD IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS
TO THE SOUTH INTERACT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THESE STORMS WILL
AGAIN BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FLZ050>052-055>057-060>062-065-201415-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-
DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
508 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEGINNING
AROUND NOON AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BRING BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY A SMALL
TORNADO OR FUNNEL CLOUD. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY
RAINS INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AND LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS PONDING ON ROADWAYS. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THESE
STORMS WILL AGAIN BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PHONE IN RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HEAVIER STORMS TODAY.

RJS