Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1251 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

.CURRENT...SEA AND BAY BREEZES CREATED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE GULF COAST. SEA BREEZE NEAR MIAMI WAS ON THE MOVE TOWARD
FORT MYERS BUT THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE SPACE COAST REMAINS
ANCHORED DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCE RAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE IN FORT MYERS AREA. NEXT BEST AREA IS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 4...THEN ALONG GULF SEA BREEZE NORTH OF TAMPA.

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED DRIER AIR SAGGING INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 ROTATES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHWARD PUSH OF DRY AIR TO REACH LEVY COUNTY
WEDNESDAY WITH POPS DROPPING TO 30%. SOUTH OF BOUNDARY WILL SEE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS KICK IN THURSDAY WITH BEST CHC RAIN ALONG
INTERSTATE 75 NEAR AND SOUTH OF TAMPA ALONG COLLIDING SEA BREEZE
FRONTS. ALSO...DEEP MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD PUTTING HIGHER POPS
IN LEVY COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-TUE)...MOIST SE FLOW AND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION WILL FAVOR GOOD CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
LINGERING THRU THE EVEING HOURS. A DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL AID IN CONTINUATION OF GOOD
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...THUS SLIGHTLY BETTER POPS
INLAND VS ALONG THE COAST SUN THRU TUE. TEMPS CONTINUING NEAR NORM
THRU THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH PERIOD AS HIGH PRES
DOMINATES COASTAL WATERS. NO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCAT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THIS
ACTIVITY. RISK FOR TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR ACROSS INLAND NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP
THE HUMIDITY INTO THE 40S...OTHERWISE MIN HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE 50S. NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  91  77  90 /  30  50  30  60
FMY  75  91  74  91 /  30  70  40  60
GIF  75  92  75  90 /  30  70  30  50
SRQ  76  91  74  90 /  30  50  30  60
BKV  72  92  72  91 /  20  40  30  50
SPG  79  90  78  89 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...NOAH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PETRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
512 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048-181400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
512 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. MOTION ON THESE STORMS WILL BE
SLOW...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AND LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS PONDING ON ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD PLAN SOME EXTRA DRIVING TIME FOR THE RUSH HOUR TRAFFIC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE THE COOLING RELIEF OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND
LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING AND RESERVE STRENUOUS EXERCISE FOR EARLY
MORNING OR EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THESE STORMS WILL
AGAIN BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FLZ049>052-055>057-060>062-065-181400-
PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
512 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING
AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. MOTION ON THESE STORMS WILL BE
SLOW...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AND LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS PONDING ON ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD PLAN SOME EXTRA DRIVING TIME FOR THE RUSH HOUR TRAFFIC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS GUST FRONTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS COLLIDE WITH THE SEA BREEZE. TREES...POWER LINES...AND
POORLY CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS WILL BE MOST AT RISK. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR INFORMATION ON THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THESE
STORMS WILL AGAIN BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

RJS