Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP IN KEEPING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST TBW 12Z SOUNDING INDICATES
INCREASING PW VALUES ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT...BECOMING CALM
AT TIMES WHICH TRANSLATES INTO SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE MAIN
MECHANISMS FOR STORM FORMATION WILL BE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS FOR WHICH LATEST NAM/GFS MODEL DATA SHOWS CLEAR AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND SLOWLY SPREADING
WESTWARD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO IS FAVORABLE FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING SITUATIONS AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD REMAIN OVER
THE SAME AREA FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. THIS SCENARIO BASICALLY
REPEATS ITSELF ON WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF HAVING
THE STRONGEST CELL DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE COASTAL AREAS AS THE
EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES STRONGER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH AFTERNOON MAXS
COOLING DOWN A LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-MON)...MOISTURE RICH SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE CWA WED NIGHT THRU FRI...WITH GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THRU EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS CWA WIDE. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS AN UPR TROF DEEPENS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND A SFC FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CAROLINAS.  THE
FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS FARTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL GA ON
SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR CWA TO THE EASTERN
SIDE...AND EARLIER IN THE DAY...FOR THE SAT THRU MON TIME PERIOD.
TEMPS THRU THE LONG TERM PERIOD NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE MARINE ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL KEEP SEAS AND WINDS
BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH
SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCAT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ASSOC MVFR OR IFC CONDITIONS VCNTY
OF THESE CELLS. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  90  76  90  /  30  50  30  60
FMY  75  90  74  92  /  20  60  30  60
GIF  74  91  74  91  /  30  60  30  60
SRQ  74  89  75  90  /  20  50  30  50
BKV  71  90  72  90  /  30  50  30  50
SPG  78  90  78  89  /  30  50  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
441 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-171430-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
441 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TODAY THE AREA WILL TRANSITION FROM THE DRIER PATTERN WE SAW OVER
THE WEEKEND TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. MOISTURE WILL RETURN
AND BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINS. MOTION ON THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW...INCREASING THE CHANCE
FOR MINOR FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD PLAN
SOME EXTRA DRIVING TIME FOR THE RUSH HOUR TRAFFIC LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OF COURSE REMEMBER THE SLOGAN TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING A FLOODED ROADWAY.

FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE THE COOLING RELIEF OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND
LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING AND RESERVE STRENUOUS EXERCISE FOR EARLY
MORNING OR EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. FOR
TUESDAY...THE STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO FOR
AREAS THAT DO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT MINOR FLOODING AND
PONDING ON ROADWAYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK...EXPECT THE STEERING FLOW TO PICK UP AND REDUCE THE
RISK FOR HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS...HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH
100 DEGREES EACH DAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN EXPOSED TO THIS HEAT AND TRY TO STAY WITHIN
AIR CONDITIONED BUILDINGS. IF THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE...REMEMBER TO
DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
104 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

FLZ043-048-049-171800-
HERNANDO-SUMTER-PASCO-
104 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF HERNANDO...SOUTHERN
SUMTER AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN HERNANDO COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

THUNDERSTORMS...NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT THE MENTIONED AREA
INCLUDING BROOKSVILLE...MASARYKTOWN AND SAN ANTONIO...AND
ZEPHYRHILLS UNTIL 200 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 30 MPH OR HIGHER ARE
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING UNDER HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 75 AND MAJOR HIGHWAYS. SLOW DOWN AND
KEEP ENOUGH DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

REYNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
104 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

FLZ043-048-049-171800-
HERNANDO-SUMTER-PASCO-
104 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF HERNANDO...SOUTHERN
SUMTER AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN PASCO COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

THUNDERSTORMS...NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT THE MENTIONED AREA
INCLUDING BROOKSVILLE...MASARYKTOWN AND SAN ANTONIO...AND
ZEPHYRHILLS UNTIL 200 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 30 MPH OR HIGHER ARE
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING UNDER HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 75 AND MAJOR HIGHWAYS. SLOW DOWN AND
KEEP ENOUGH DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

REYNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
541 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

FLZ055-172200-
MANATEE-
541 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

...FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY...

AT 541 PM EDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
ALONG STATE ROAD 70 NEAR THE COUNTY LINE IN SOUTHEAST MANATEE
COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE STORM MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

AT 541 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD...5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MYAKKA CITY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY AFFECT...
  RURAL SOUTHERN MANATEE COUNTY.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN BECOME BRIEF...SMALL...BUT DANGEROUS TORNADOES.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MORE FUNNEL CLOUDS...AND A
TORNADO. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2722 8206 2734 8207 2736 8222 2723 8220

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