Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES WITH A RIDGE AXIS
OVER N FL/S GA. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING UNDER THIS RIDGE IS SPARKING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT IS SEEN BY MULTIPLE OBS PLATFORMS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...BUT LIKE YESTERDAY EXPECT NORTH TO STILL SEE SOME SCT
SHOWERS BY LATE AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO QUIET DOWN AFTER
SUNSET...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME LOW END SCT SHOWERS TILL
MIDNIGHT.

ONCE THIS TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO COME IN ON WEDNESDAY. NAM CONTINUES
TO STRONGLY DIVERGE FROM OTHER MODELS BRINGING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TPC HAS NO MENTION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE EVEN HAVING A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPING...AND AGREE WITH
THAT ASSESSMENT ON THIS SIDE. STILL...AREA CAN EXPECT A CONTINUED
HIGH CHANCE FOR RAINS FOR WED...AND EVEN SOME ON THU AS AREA WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR AFTN TSTMS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...AND THEN
WILL SEE VALUES RECOVER BACK TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU NGT - TUES)...NAM SUITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IMPACTING THE PENINSULA AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUN TAKING THESE
FEATURES FURTHER TO THE WEST OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO LOOK OVERDONE AND WILL CONTINUE TO IGNORE FOR NOW AND
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE GFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS IN BUILDING
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING (THE BERMUDA HIGH) FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WEST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...THEN MERGING
IT WITH ANOTHER STRONG BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS
ABOUT THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH EXPECT TO SEE A CONTINUATION OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEPICT SOME DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING FRIDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRIER SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATEST GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR
LOWERING POPS TO 20% DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT SEEING THAT
IT IS SUMMER YOU REALLY HAVE TO HAVE A GOOD REASON FOR IT NOT TO
RAIN OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
SCATTERED RANGE (30%) POPS IN THE GRIDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

DURING SUNDAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LESS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
RESULT IN BETTER PROSPECTS FOR SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE 40% POPS WILL BE DEPICTED...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
30% POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL HANG ON
A BIT LONGER. ON MONDAY NEAR CLIMO-LEVEL POPS ARE EXPECTED ALL ZONES
AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. BY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
THE GFS/DGEXS SHOWS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN SOUTHEASTERN UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADING SOME WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SERN STATES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION
IS LOW RIGHT NOW...SO WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GRIDS
WITH NEAR CLIMO-LEVEL POPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S FAR
NORTH...AND MID/UPPER 70S CENTRAL/SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...ASSUMING THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...KEEPING JUST A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THRU THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN MARINERS CAN EXPECT ERLY WINDS BELOW 15 KTS. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN AND AHEAD OF ANY TSTMS THAT COME FROM THE LAND
AND MOVE OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WIND DOWN OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  76  91 /  40  70  40  50
FMY  75  89  75  91 /  40  70  40  50
GIF  75  89  75  91 /  30  70  30  40
SRQ  75  89  74  90 /  40  70  40  50
BKV  73  90  73  91 /  30  70  30  50
SPG  78  89  78  90 /  40  70  40  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
422 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048-111430-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
422 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THEN
INCREASE TO SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAINFALL...AND OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THEN A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FLZ049>052-055>057-060>062-065-111430-
PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
422 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE MORNING AND THEN
BECOME NUMEROUS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THEN A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
119 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

FLZ065-111745-
LEE-
119 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN LEE COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT WHISKEY
CREEK...PAGE PARK-PINE MANOR...FORT MYERS VILLAS...FORT MYERS AND
CAPE CORAL...UNTIL 145 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL
OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY BECOME
BRIEF SMALL TORNADOES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
143 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

FLZ055-111815-
MANATEE-
143 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN MANATEE COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT WEST
SAMOSET...WEST BRADENTON...SAMOSET AND PALMETTO...UNTIL 215 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

FLZ050-051-112015-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST HILLSBOROUGH AND
NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT WEST PARK...
TAMPA AND LUTZ...UNTIL 415 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY
CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND
WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.

EJ