Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
124 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - WED)...GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET ALL IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TRACKING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS FL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A SURFACE WAVE
APPROACHES EAST FL TUE AND MOVES OVER THE STATE WED. HOWEVER...THE
NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH THE WAVE DEEPENING INTO A LOW AND
MOVING ACROSS FL ABOUT 6 TO 8 HOURS SOONER. WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN
HANDLING THE MOISTURE FIELD BETTER THAN THE GFS WILL FAVOR THE
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION
SHOULD END LATE EVENING ON SHORE AS ISOLATED TSTM CONTINUE ON THE
GULF. TUE WILL SEE SCATTERED POPS FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA WHILE
THE NORTH...UNDER SOME LINGERING DRIER AIR...HAS ISOLATED POPS. AS
THE WAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH WED...ALONG WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UPPER LOW MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE AREA...POPS WILL BECOME HIGH END
SCATTERED CWFA WIDE. WED MAY REQUIRED SOME HIGHER ODDS BUT AM
COMFORTABLE WITH 50 % RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CLOSE TO
CLIMO BUT WILL ALLOW MAXES TO DROP 1-2 DEGREES WED.

.LONG TERM (WED NGT-MON)...UNUSUALLY STRONG L/W TROUGH FOR JULY WILL
DIG OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DRY AIR ALOFT ADVECTING OVER NORTH FLORIDA.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA.  DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMPA.  SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
FLORIDA.  INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...WITH TYPICAL
EASTERLY FLOW AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BACK AND INCREASE WINDS
SOME TUE AND THEN ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND VEER WED AS THE WAVE MOVES
OVER FL AND INTO THE THE GULF. THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN NORTH OF
FLORIDA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCAL
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY...AND PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS AND FOG.  BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  91  75  90 /  10  30  10  50
FMY  74  92  74  91 /  20  40  20  50
GIF  73  91  74  91 /  10  40  10  50
SRQ  73  91  74  90 /  10  30  10  50
BKV  70  92  70  91 /  10  30  10  50
SPG  77  89  77  90 /  10  30  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...09
LONG TERM/AVIATION...13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
501 AM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-031515-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
501 AM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST BY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE MOISTURE
CONTENT IS HIGHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE IN
LEVY COUNTY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...BUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ALL THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DEADLY LIGHTNING. WHEN SKIES DARKEN...
MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL
EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR
RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN LOWER OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY...BUT STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BACK TO NORMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR URBAN
FLOODING AS WE TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT FROM THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
404 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

FLZ051-032045-
HILLSBOROUGH-
404 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT LUTZ...
CARROLLWOOD...TEMPLE TERRACE AND WEST PARK...UNTIL 445 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY ALSO PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

RJS