Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
114 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONGOING ATTM WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND END BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME MID
CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 70.

ON FRIDAY THE SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST WHICH HAS GIVEN US EASTERLY FLOW
PAST FEW DAYS WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS THE NEXT UPR SHRT WAVE
AND ASSOC SFC TROF...NOW CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS RIVER VALLEYS...
MOVES INTO THE SE STATES. AS SUCH...THE SFC FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF...AND THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT
OF PUSHING THE WC SEA BREEZE AND ASSOC CONVECTION TO THE EAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE DAY. WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...
WILL GO WITH A POP GRADIENT FROM 20 ALONG THE WEST COAST TO 60
ACROSS OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS ON FRI IN THE UPR
80S.

BY SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTH...REACHING THE W FL PANHANDLE BY MID DAY SAT. COMBINATION OF
SMALLER PRE-TROUGH UPR DISTURBANCES...INCREASING MOIST SW FLOW...
AND SEA BREEZE AND MESO BOUNDARIES...ALL RESULTING IN GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE DAYTIME. HIGH TEMPS ON SAT
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH WITH THICKER CLOUDS TO AROUND 90
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT NGT - THU)...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DISPLACED
WELL TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST AS NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF COULD
MAKE SOME HEADWAY EASTWARD BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE MORE STABLE
LANDMASS.

ON SUNDAY...A COMBINATION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA AND AFTERNOON HEATING TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR...AND WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME
DRYING NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON MONDAY...A LINGERING TROUGH ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
COULD IGNITE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
AIR WILL KEEP COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAD TO STEEP LAPSE RATES
SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME SHORT LIVED ISOLATED STORMS.

MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
DROPPING TO AROUND AN INCH. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD POOL OF AIR
ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN GULF...HEADING TOWARD THE NATURE
COAST. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LACKING TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS DESPITE THE POTENTIAL OF HAVING A STEEP LAPSE RATE
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS. WE HAVE REMOVED THE ISOLATED
POPS FOR NOW. THIS COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY. AGAIN...SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
REMAINING LOWER THAN NORMAL. HAVE REMOVED THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE GRIDS BUT WILL KEEP SILENT 10 POPS IN PLACE...WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN LEE
COUNTY AND COULD BE AFFECTING THE FMY AND RSW TERMINALS IN THE NEXT
HOUR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT OTHER TERMINALS TO THE NORTH
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS COMING BETWEEN
18 AND 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 9 PM.

&&

.MARINE...MAY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN SW-W WINDS (UP TO 15KT) LATE
SAT THRU EARLY SUN AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
WINDS AND SEAS THRU THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY NIGHT THRU
SAT...WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS (VCNTY OF STRONGER TSTMS).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH ADEQUATE
SFC RH VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  88  75  87 /  30  20   5  40
FMY  71  90  73  90 /  30  20   5  30
GIF  71  90  73  89 /  20  60  20  40
SRQ  72  86  75  86 /  30  20   5  30
BKV  68  89  69  86 /  30  40   5  40
SPG  75  85  77  87 /  30  20   5  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...NP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
506 AM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048-011500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
506 AM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR FLORIDAS NATURE COAST.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BECOMING
NUMEROUS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHER
HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50
MPH. A SMALL TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MULTIPLE
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT.  WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...

FRIDAY: ISOLATED LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED AS THEY MOVE INLAND BY MID AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY: A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD...ENHANCING A BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT AND RESULTING IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DIVING TO THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY HAZARD. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SAME AREAS...WHICH WOULD DROP SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY. SPOTTERS MAY WISH
TO SELF ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.

FLZ049>052-055>057-060-061-011500-
PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-
506 AM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BECOMING
NUMEROUS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHER
HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50
MPH. A SMALL TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MULTIPLE
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT.  WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY: ISOLATED LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED AS THEY MOVE INLAND BY MID AFTERNOON.
POLK COUNTY WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
MID AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR TWO MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH
GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

SATURDAY: A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD...ENHANCING A BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING TO THE SOUTH WILL GIVE A LOW
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WIND A POSSIBILITY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE TO TRIGGER THEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS MAY WISH
TO SELF ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS.

FLZ062-065-011500-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
506 AM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BECOMING
NUMEROUS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHER
HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50
MPH. A SMALL TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MULTIPLE
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT.  WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY: ISOLATED LATE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE MOVING EAST WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY EVENING AS A WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE EDGES INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROUGH HELPS TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS
DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS MOST OF THE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS MAY WISH
TO SELF ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS.

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
322 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

FLZ055-012000-
MANATEE-
322 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT ELLENTON...
PALMETTO...LAKEWOOD RANCH...AND EAST BRADENTON... UNTIL 400 PM EDT.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. RAINFALL RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR AND MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
336 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

FLZ050-012000-
PINELLAS-
336 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PINELLAS PARK...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT PINELLAS PARK...
LEALMAN AND HIGHPOINT...UNTIL 400 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP
TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

JLC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
343 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

FLZ051-012015-
HILLSBOROUGH-
343 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT WEST PARK...
TOWN N COUNTRY AND CARROLLWOOD...UNTIL 415 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL
RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

JLC