Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
117 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE
EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS GA AND AL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE A
TROUGH TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC DIGS SOUTH OVER THE BAHAMAS.
A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD. DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE OVER THE AREA FOR MEMORIAL DAY WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
MOISTURE RETURN TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...OTHERWISE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM... (TUE NGT-SUN)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEABREEZE BOUNDARY EACH AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHING TO
THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY MUGGY
WARM CONDITIONS WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.  SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.  THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONSHORE
WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS OUTSIDE OF STORMS. VARIABLE WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL EVENTUALLY TURN MORE WESTERLY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE A
LITTLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS TODAY OR TOMORROW AS
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  73  92  72 /   5  50   5   5
FMY  94  72  91  71 /   5  20  20   5
GIF  95  71  93  70 /  20  40   5   5
SRQ  90  72  90  70 /   5  40   5   5
BKV  93  67  92  65 /  20  50   5   5
SPG  90  74  90  75 /   5  40   5   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....EO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
513 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-281500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
513 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE COAST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SUNSHINE AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA ONCE AGAIN. THIS EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
NOT ONLY INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT PUSH THEM BACK
TOWARD THE SUNCOAST AND BEYOND...PROVIDING MANY AREAS THEIR FIRST
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IN THREE WEEKS.

THE RAINS MAY COME WITH A PRICE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP. STRONGER STORMS IN THE COMPLEX
WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...HAIL WHICH MAY EXCEED THE SIZE OF PENNIES...AND WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO AS LOW LEVEL ROTATION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES OF THE STRONGEST CELLS.

TOTAL RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT NOTABLE FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF THE GULF COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY BEFORE SUNRISE ON MEMORIAL
DAY.

RESIDENTS OF THE SUNCOAST FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH AS WELL AS INTERIOR
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
IMPORTANT TODAY AS IT IS THE MIDDLE OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...AND MOST RESIDENTS HAVE NOT YET EXPERIENCED THE TYPICAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THE 2005 RAINY SEASON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO FAIR
WEATHER. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND OVER INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN RAIN
FREE...BUT STILL WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID...CONDITIONS EACH
DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

FOR UPDATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS...STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR CHECK OUR WEBSITE AT

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

FOR LIGHTNING PRECAUTIONS...CHECK THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE:

HTTP://WWW.LIGHTNINGSAFETY.NOAA.GOV

FLZ055>057-060>062-065-281500-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
513 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SUNNY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHLANDS COUNTY...LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN A BRIEF DOWNPOUR...GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

BY TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PENINSULA MAY PUSH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...INCLUDING MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE...AND DESOTO
COUNTIES. SHOULD THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...THEY WOULD PRODUCE
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR COASTAL RESIDENTS LATE THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY.

ANY STRONG STORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR MORE.
IN ADDITION...LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINS MAY DROP UP TO 2 INCHES IN
LESS THAN AN HOUR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEFORE SUNRISE ON
MEMORIAL DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO FAIR
WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OVER
CHARLOTTE OR LEE COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST...BUT WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID...CONDITIONS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS MAY WISH
TO SELF ACTIVATE THIS EVENING SHOULD THE EXPECTED LINE OR CLUSTER
OF STORMS FROM TAMPA BAY TO POINTS NORTH...DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BSG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
341 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             ZEPHYRHILLS             28.24N 82.18W
05/28/2006  M0.75 INCH       PASCO              FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7300 BLOCK OF GAUL BLVD.

&&

NOAH