Red Flag Warning 85, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 130721
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
221 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEVY...
CITRUS...SUMTER...HERNANDO...PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK
COUNTIES FOR LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35
PERCENT...

...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MANATEE...HARDEE...DESOTO AND
HIGHLANDS COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY FALL
BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON BUT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...

.A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY WILL SUPPORT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO BELOW 35
PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS WITHIN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

FLZ055>057-061-130830-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FW.A.0064.061113T1700Z-061113T2300Z/
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-
221 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
CANCELLED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL BELOW
35 PERCENT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THUS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-052-132300-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0085.061113T1700Z-061113T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
221 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE
HOURS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
25 AND 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT MAY START WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

JCM

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
118 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...HIGH PRES AND COOLER DRIER
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. MANY AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY (NATURE COAST
COUNTIES) WILL SEE TEMPS DIPPING DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 45 TO 50 FOR
THE TAMPA BAY AREA (COOLEST INLAND FROM THE WATER) TO THE MID 50S
SOUTH TOWARD FORT MYERS.

MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S NORTH OF TAMPA BAY TO 75 TO 80 TAMPA BAY
SOUTH TO FORT MYERS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...ESP NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WHERE
LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 TUES
MORNING. AREAS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH CAN EXPECT LOWS FROM 45 TO
55...WARMEST SOUTH AND NEAR THE COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
FOR TUES WITH HIGH PRES PROVIDING ANOTHER COMFORTABLE DAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DAYTIME HIGHS FROM 75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SLIP SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. SUPPORTING A ROBUST COLD
FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF ISNT FAR BEHIND. THE DGEX IS
SLOWER THAN THE OTHER TWO...SO I WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 12Z GFS.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EVEN IF THE FRONT WAS A BIT SLOWER...THE GFS TYPICALLY
KEEPS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOO CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SINCE THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING FRONT...I DONT WANT TO
KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MORE THAN A 12 TO
18 HOUR PERIOD... SO I TRIMMED AWAY THE SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND JUST SHOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LEFTOVER STORMS
THURSDAY MORNING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE WATERS AND PRES GRAD RELAXES SOME. WEAK PRES GRAD
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES
OVER THE REGION...THUS DECENT MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. S
TO SW FLOW WILL INCREASE ON WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...WITH SCA
CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE WED. GUSTY NW WINDS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THRU LATE THU...WITH AT LEAST SCEC
HEADLINES EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BURNED OFF...AND THE LOW CLOUDS
THAT WERE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR RAPIDLY MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ATTM. BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS...SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
OUR NATURE COAST COUNTIES WILL SEE UP TO 3 HOURS OF RH AOB 35
PCNT THIS AFTERNOON. RFW CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. FOR NOW WILL UPGRADE CURRENT
WATCH FOR MONDAY TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR COUNTIES FROM
HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK NORTHWARD...AND CONTINUE THE CURRENT WATCH
FOR THE REMAINING WATCH COUNTIES. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DECIDE HOW
MANY OF THE REMAINING WATCH COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED
BASED ON FUTURE OB TRENDS AND GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  52  76  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  58  81  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  52  77  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  53  75  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  38  75  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  59  73  60  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
     MANATEE.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR CITRUS-
     HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...NP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
404 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-121530-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
404 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BRIEFLY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR
LESS IN SOME LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED
TO BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT WITH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COOL DRY AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER
ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JCM