Red Flag Warning 83, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
234 AM EST SUN OCT 29 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY -TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A RATHER QUICK MODERATING TREND AFTER A COOL START THIS
MORNING. AFTER STARTING OFF IN THE 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH...
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND 25 TO 30 DEGREES...REACHING THE MID 70S
NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WELL TO
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE 80S EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SAT)...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. DURING THE
PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT...ORIGINALLY FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY...AND NOW DONT MOVE IT THROUGH UNTIL SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF THE WARM
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO FRIDAY.  LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE RETURN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SO MAIN AFFECT WILL JUST BE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS SO WILL GO WITH 20 POPS FOR
FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND BRINGING SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE GULF CONTINUE TO BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE...EVEN A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WINDS AT BUOY 42036 ARE
STILL AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20S...AND SEAS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING AROUND 8 FEET. I WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
OUT TO 10 AM FOR THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF 20 NM...AND CONTINUE SCEC
FOR THE INNER WATERS.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KNOTS LATER TODAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE SURGES EACH EVENING THAT MAY BRING WINDS BACK UP TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...WINDS WILL
FINALLY DROP TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...ALLOWING SEAS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST TODAY...WITH AREAS FURTHER SOUTH FALLING SHORT OF
THE REQUIRED 4 HOUR DURATIONS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WITH NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED AFTER TODAY.

WE WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
LEVY COUNTY...BUT JUST MENTION 1 TO 3 HOUR DURATIONS OF CRITICAL
RH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  61  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  81  63  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  79  60  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  78  60  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  77  51  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  77  67  84  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LEVY COUNTY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM
     EST THIS MORNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60
     NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING
     FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20
     NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE....JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CLOSE