Red Flag Warning 82, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 251902
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
302 PM EDT WED OCT 25 2006

..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR 4 HOURS OR MORE OF HUMIDITY
BELOW 35 PERCENT..

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-252300-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0082.000000T0000Z-061025T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
302 PM EDT WED OCT 25 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HUMIDITY
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RECOVER AS BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
RISE. HOWEVER...CURRENT DATA STILL SUGGESTS AT LEAST 4 HOURS OF
LOW HUMIDITY IN MOST AREAS.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE STATE
AND NOT AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY MIGRATES
EASTWARD. MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AND DEEPENS INTO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT...WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL STEADILY VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE
STATE. GFS/NAM/MOS SHOW MARGINAL AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME PREFRONTAL
WEATHER OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
REACHING THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES LATER THAT AFTERNOON. POPS WILL
BE INCREASED TO 40 PERCENT NORTH AND CARRY 30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE FOR
THAT TIME FRAME. THIS ADJUSTS A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP FIELD ON THE MODELS AND SURROUNDING CWAS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMALS BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAXS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THEN AS WINDS VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND MOISTURE ARRIVES OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT TEMPS TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH EVEN WARMER
MORNING LOWS EVERYWHERE AND AFTERNOON MAXS REACHING OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NGT-TUE)...MODELS ANOTHER 6 OR SO HOURS  SLOWER WITH
FROPA TIMING...NOW BRINGING FRONT THRU THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 12Z
SAT. TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM TAMPA BAY
NORTH WILL BE 00-12Z SAT...THEN BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY AFTER 12Z. BY 00Z SUN...ALL FRONTAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF FMY. HIGH PRES WITH COOLER DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT WONT
BE QUITE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA RIGHT NOW. POST FRONT
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE ONLY AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

ON MONDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND ALLOW WARMER MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO TEMPS WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS...LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE OLD
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AND PRESENT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. LATEST GFS THEN SUGGESTS LOW PRES
WILL DEVELOP OVER OR JUST WEST OF TAMPA BAY ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY
LATE TUE AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF DEEPENS OVER THE GULF.
IN SUMMARY...WILL INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...BUT MAY END UP HAVING TO INCREASE THESE POPS
IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS
HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON THURSDAY EVENING WHICH WILL
BRING PERIODS OF CONDITIONS REACHING NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
NORTHERN MARINE ZONES ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN SUBSIDING BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE DAY WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY EVERYWHERE THROUGH
7PM EDT AS A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE STATE. THEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO ARRIVE OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY MIGRATES EASTWARD BRINGING A
SWITCH IN WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. THIS
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RAISE AND KEEP
RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  58  82  69  /   0   0  10   5
FMY  79  58  86  68  /   0   0  10   5
GIF  76  59  83  67  /   0   0  10   5
SRQ  76  57  82  68  /   0   0  10   5
BKV  75  49  81  62  /   0   0  10  10
SPG  75  63  82  72  /   0   0  10   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...AR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
344 AM EDT TUE OCT 24 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-241345-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
344 AM EDT TUE OCT 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONLY HAZARD EXPECTED TODAY WILL BE AGAIN VERY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
FLORIDA WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ALL COUNTIES. IT IS STRONGLY RECOMMENDED TO AVOID STARTING OUTDOOR
FIRES AS THESE FIRES COULD SPREAD EASILY AND BECOME DANGEROUS
WILDFIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY WILL
BRING CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.