Alert archive / Florida / Red Flag Warnings in 2006

Red Flag Warning 80, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

October 23, 2006Pinellas County, Sumter County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this red flag warning at Oct 23, 2006, 4:45 AM EDT for Pinellas County, Sumter County, Florida. It took effect at Oct 23, 2006, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 7 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 23, 2006, 4:45 AM EDT (08:45 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 23, 2006, 12:00 PM EDT
Expired
Oct 23, 2006, 7:00 PM EDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Counties Pinellas County, FL, Sumter County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2006-10-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 219 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2006-10-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -23 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
219 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-42 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1098 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
14 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 230845
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
445 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NATURE COAST COUNTIES...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES AND FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY...

.A VERY DRY AND COOL AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH COULD CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

FLZ039-042-043-232045-
/O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0058.061023T1600Z-061023T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0080.061023T1600Z-061023T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0059.061024T1500Z-061024T1900Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-
445 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

VERY DRY AND COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ALONG
WITH INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WILL BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE THE THREAT
OF WILD FIRES IN THE ADVISED AREA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ048>052-055>057-060>062-065-232045-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0059.061024T1500Z-061024T1900Z/
HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
445 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL
BRING VERY DRY AND COOL AIR ON TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES IN THE ADVISED
AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$
4 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS82 KTBW 231045
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
645 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NATURE COAST COUNTIES...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.A VERY DRY AND COOL AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH COULD CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME ALONG WITH SUSTAINED
TWENTY FOOT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH.

FLZ039-042-043-232300-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FW.A.0059.061024T1500Z-061024T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0080.061023T1600Z-061023T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-
645 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

VERY DRY AND COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY CAUSING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL JUST BELOW 35 PERCENT ALONG 
WITH SUSTAINED TWENTY FOOT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

ON TUESDAY THE DRY AIR WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WHICH COULD
RESULT IN 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT
ALONG WITH SUSTAINED TWENTY FOOT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH. 

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ048>052-055>057-060>062-065-232300-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FW.A.0059.061024T1500Z-061024T2300Z/
HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
645 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. 

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY USHERING IN
VERY DRY AND COOL AIR FOR TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN 4 OR MORE
HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT ALONG WITH SUSTAINED
TWENTY FOOT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES IN THE ADVISED AREA LATE
TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

PRC
000 
WWUS82 KTBW 231825
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
225 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NATURE COAST COUNTIES...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.A VERY DRY AND COOL AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW 
35 PERCENT FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME...ALONG WITH SUSTAINED
TWENTY FOOT WINDS APPROACHING 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

FLZ039-042-043-232300-
/O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0059.061024T1500Z-061024T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0081.061024T1500Z-061024T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0060.061025T1500Z-061025T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0080.000000T0000Z-061023T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-
225 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM
EDT TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 
7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

VERY DRY AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT
ALONG WITH SUSTAINED TWENTY FOOT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

ON TUESDAY THE DRY AIR WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT
ALONG WITH SUSTAINED TWENTY FOOT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH.

ON WEDNESDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ048>052-055>057-060>062-065-232300-
/O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0059.061024T1500Z-061024T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0081.061024T1500Z-061024T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0060.061025T1500Z-061025T2300Z/
HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
225 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM
EDT TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

VERY DRY AND COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT
ALONG WITH SUSTAINED TWENTY FOOT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH ON TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

PRC
000 
WWUS82 KTBW 231947
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
347 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SUNCOAST AND
AND NATURE COAST FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.A VERY DRY AND COOL AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW
35 PERCENT FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME...ALONG WITH SUSTAINED
TWENTY FOOT WINDS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 15 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FLZ048>051-232300-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0080.000000T0000Z-061023T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0081.061024T1500Z-061024T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0060.061025T1500Z-061025T2300Z/
HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-
347 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO
7 PM EDT TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON: DRY AIR IS SURGING SOUTHWARD AND
HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN TO 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. IN
ADDITION...NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR
20 MPH ESPECIALLY IN EXPOSED AREAS WOULD AID THE SPREAD OF ANY
BRUSH OR WILD FIRES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

VERY DRY AND COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT
ALONG WITH SUSTAINED TWENTY FOOT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH ON TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-232300-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0080.000000T0000Z-061023T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0081.061024T1500Z-061024T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0060.061025T1500Z-061025T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-
347 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN TO 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. THESE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 6 PM BEFORE RISING QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH MAY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF ANY ONGOING BRUSH OR WILD FIRES.

ON TUESDAY THE DRY AIR WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
35 PERCENT ALONG WITH SUSTAINED TWENTY FOOT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH.

ON WEDNESDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ052-055>057-060>062-065-240800-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0081.061024T1500Z-061024T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0060.061025T1500Z-061025T2300Z/
POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
347 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

VERY DRY AND COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT
ALONG WITH SUSTAINED TWENTY FOOT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH ON TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

PRC/EJ/BSG
000 
WWUS82 KTBW 232315
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
715 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR MORE THAN 4 HOURS OF
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THAN 4 HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.THE DRIEST AND COOLEST AIR OF THIS YOUNG AUTUMN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER FLORIDA.


FLZ039-042-043-048>051-241130-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0080.000000T0000Z-061023T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0081.061024T1500Z-061024T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0060.061025T1500Z-061025T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-
715 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED THIS MONDAY EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. 

WITH SUNSET...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN INTO THE 60S AND
HUMIDITY IS LIKEWISE RISING WELL ABOVE 35 PERCENT.

ON TUESDAY...THE DRY AIR WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35
PERCENT ALONG WITH SUSTAINED TWENTY FOOT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH.

ON WEDNESDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ052-055>057-060>062-065-241130-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0081.061024T1500Z-061024T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0060.061025T1500Z-061025T2300Z/
POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
715 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

VERY DRY AND COOL AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN 4 OR MORE
HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT ALONG WITH SUSTAINED
TWENTY FOOT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ON WEDNESDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

BSG/PRC

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Oct 23, 2:50 AM EDT, 1 hour 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 23, 2:50 AM EDT, 1 hour 55 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...COLD FRONT NOW MOVING OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH A WEAK SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND A SOMEWHAT
BETTER NARROW CLOUD SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE AROUND CENTRAL LEVY
COUNTY AT 2 AM EDT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE REACHING
THE TAMPA BAY AREA IN THE MID MORNING HOURS.

SO FAR IT HAS BEEN A RATHER DRY EVENT WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. CURRENT 20
POPS...FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT...WILL BE KEPT ON THE GRIDS AS THERE IS NO INDICATION ON
EITHER MODEL OR OBS DATA THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING CHANCES OF RAIN BETTER THAN 20 PERCENT. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS ALSO VERY UNLIKELY AS NEITHER MOISTURE CONTENT OR
DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE SKY/POPS/WX GRIDS TO BETTER DEPICT
THE APPROXIMATE POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT MIGRATES SOUTHWARD.

VERY DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE WHOLE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STEADILY INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH
CATEGORY WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE MODEL DATA TREND TO A QUICK STATEWIDE COOLING EVENT ON
TUESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH UPPER 30S AND MID
40S EXPECTED OVER THE NATURE COAST...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE TAMPA BAY AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON PERIODS ON BOTH
DAYS WITH MAX TEMPS STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

PLEASE SEE THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT /PNS/ ISSUED ON SUNDAY
OCTOBER 22 REGARDING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OFF WITH HIGH PRES MOVING EAST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST....BUT
REMAINING EXTENDED ACROSS THE STATE MOST OF THU. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THU NIGHT...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRI. DRY
FORECAST WED NIGHT AND THU...THEN CHANCE POPS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY THU
NIGHT...CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRI ASSOC WITH THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND
WEST CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY SAT...BRINING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER
DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...THE NORTHERN WATERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING 20 KNOTS AT BUOY
42036 WHICH JUST EXPERIENCED THE PASSAGE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED INTO THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS
LATER THIS MORNING...AND OTHER NEARSHORE ZONES MAY BE INCLUDED IF
NECESSARY. AS WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS CATEGORY AND
SEAS RISE MARINERS SHOULD BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WHEN OPERATING SMALL
CRAFT UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS AND MAY WANT TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...SOMETHING THAT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING WHEN WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCAT SPOTS OF MVFR AND ISOLD IFR ATTM DUE TO FOG.
EXPECTING THIS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING DURING THE
LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
TODAY...WITH LOCAL MVFR IN LOWER CIGS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LEVY...CITRUS AND
SUMTER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
QUICKLY DROP ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE.

AN EVEN BIGGER EVENT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WHEN A MASSIVE DRY AND
COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED INTO A RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY FOR
BASICALLY ALL COUNTIES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  50  71  51  /  20   0   0   0
FMY  85  54  75  51  /  20   0   0   0
GIF  80  50  71  49  /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  80  51  73  51  /  20   0   0   0
BKV  77  38  69  39  /  10   0   0   0
SPG  78  57  72  57  /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR CITRUS-LEVY-SUMTER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL COUNTIES.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE....AR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 23, 2:25 PM EDTFire Weather WatchTBWDeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Pinellas, Polk, Sumter37 hr
Oct 23, 2:25 PM EDTRed Flag WarningTBWDeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Pinellas, Polk, Sumter29 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Florida, 2006Every red flag warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.