Red Flag Warning 79, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUE)...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF AND THE
NW CARIBBEAN WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AS A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST SLIDES NORTH EASTWARD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MON. AS THE HIGH MOVES NE...A DRY COOL LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW VEERS INTO THE EAST AND SE WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. DURING MON...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE TX COAST. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE NE TUE WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF BEING
LIFTED NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH/ WHICH HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
BY TUE/ WILL PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTH AND SW WINDS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE GULF ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE SOUTHERLY WILL HELP TO PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALSO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE PCPN MON AFTERNOON
ON THE GULF THAT SPREADS ONSHORE OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
CONTINUES TUE EXCEPT IN THE NORTH CWFA/ CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND
LOW/ WHICH WILL SEE CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST
UNDER CLIMO WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO AROUND CLIMO.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...THE PERIOD MAY BEGIN RATHER
ACTIVE...AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL OF THE
ROBUST ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MAY PRODUCE SOME SORT OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN
NORTH FLORIDA WHICH ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500 MB RIDGE
AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A
BREAK IN THE ACTION...PERHAPS...FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH WHILE DEEP LAYER DRYING PINCHES
SOUTHWARD...STILL AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500 MB RIDGE IN THE
GULF.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR SOMETIME FRIDAY...BUT
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE 00Z RUN AS TO HOW MUCH
DRIER...AND COOLER...AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD.  THE LATEST TREND IS
THE FLATTEN THE GULF RIDGE RATHER THAN TOTALLY REPLACE IT...AND THIS
COULD RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE PENINSULA NEXT WEEKEND.

AS FOR MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE GFS SHOWS DECENT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY THROUGH DAY 5 BEFORE DIVERGING WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT
CONTINUING A TREND TOWARD A LESS ROBUST FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
OTHER 00Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS...CANADIAN GEM...AND
ECMWF...HOLD ONTO THE FLAT 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PENINSULA WHICH
WOULD ARGUE FOR NO FRONTAL PASSAGE AT ALL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE TRENDS AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED NORTHWARD SURGE OF
DEEP TROPICAL AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE REASONABLE LOGIC
OF HAVING A TAIL OF THE JET/VORTICITY ROTATING EAST...THEN
SOUTHEAST...AROUND THE RIDGE...WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  FOR
NOW...PREFER ONLY TO RAMP UP INTO THE 30/40 PERCENT RANGE THOUGH
THIS IS STILL SOME 10-20 PERCENT BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT THE NATURE COAST FIRST...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS
MORE TYPICAL OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENT IN AUGUST.

BEHIND THE WAVE...A QUICK PERIOD OF DRYING SHOULD SET IN WITH A
SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW.  THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SOME 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
TOASTY...1000-500 MB THICKNESS NEAR 5790 DM WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS AROUND 90 IN MANY SPOTS.

BY FRIDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 30 PERCENT...AS FORCING DOES NOT LOOK
THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT CHANGE IN AIR MASS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT
LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION.  THE WIND SHIFT IS STILL EXPECTED
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT HOW INTENSE REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  FOR NOW...HAVE
RETAINED LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH USHERS IN SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. PLEASE NOTE
THAT THE DAY 6/7 FORECAST ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE...ESPECIALLY IF THE
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FORTH AND KEEPS THE WIND SHIFT NORTH OF THE
PENINSULA.  STAY TUNED...

&&

.MARINE...SCEC CONTINUES TODAY AND HAVE EXTENDED IT INTO MON
AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS DO SLACK SOME EARLY TONIGHT THEY BOUNCE
BACK LATER TONIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DROP OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE MARINE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...PLENTY OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...VFR BROKEN/OVERCAST ABOVE
12000 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE 3
NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES WHICH WILL SEE RH LESS THAN 35% FOR 4 TO 5
HORS TODAY. REST OF THE AREA MAY SEE RH APPROACH 35% FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO. AFTER TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE MOSITENS ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AN
HUMIDITY ISSUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  68  85  72 /   0   5  10  20
FMY  86  67  87  70 /   0   5  10  20
GIF  83  64  86  70 /   0   5  10  20
SRQ  84  66  85  71 /   0   5  10  20
BKV  84  57  85  68 /   0   5  10  20
SPG  83  71  85  74 /   0   5  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CITRUS- LEVY-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM AND TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...09/RKR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...88/BSG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
421 AM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-141300-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
421 AM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

BSG