Red Flag Warning 77, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000
WWUS82 KTBW 132305
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
705 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY FOR LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
EXTENDED DURATIONS...

.A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL
ALLOW HUMIDITY LEVELS TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW 35 PERCENT AWAY
FROM THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-141000-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0077.000000T0000Z-061013T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0056.061014T1600Z-061014T2200Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
705 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE
HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ051-052-056-057-141000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0056.061014T1600Z-061014T2200Z/
HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
705 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE
HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
131 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LARGE POLAR
VORTEX WHICH HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT TO NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST MOVES SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH
THE ROCKIES. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH) WILL SUPPORT MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS FALLING TO 50 TO THE LOWER
50S FAR NORTH...MID/UPPER 50S INTERIOR CENTRAL...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE AMPLE
SUN WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW HAS
NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...BUT 06Z GFS IS FORECASTING IT
TO DRIFT ASHORE OVERNIGHT AND THEN BY SUNDAY NIGHT SPLIT INTO TWO
PARTS...WITH ONE VORTMAX EJECTING INTO THE ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
REST OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THEN OTHER PART MOVING BACK OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MOVING VORTMAX WOULD COME ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND INDUCE A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD NUDGE THE
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE FURTHER EAST AND BRING A MOIST SOUTH WIND
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A SIMILAR
PATTERN...THOUGH IT TAKES A LITTLE MORE ENERGY FROM THE PARENT LOW
ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

THE ECMWF SPLITS THE UPPER LOW QUICKER AND ALLOWS IT TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH BECAUSE OF A MORE NORTHWARD POSITIONING OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE DGEX IS SLOWER...BUT ALSO PUSHES THE ENERGY
FURTHER NORTH BECAUSE OF THE HIGH OVER THE GULF. BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS WOULD ARGUE FOR DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM
00Z MODEL RUN HAVE POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...00Z MEX POPS
RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT...AND 12Z MEX POPS RANGE FROM 30-50
PERCENT...FEEL THAT PUBLIC FORECAST SHOULD AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DURING THE DAY. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN THEN TREND UP
TO CHANCE IF OTHER MODELS COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THE ONE THING THAT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS
THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG RANGE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR A COOL DOWN LOOKS TO BE JUST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH
AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATES DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS/SEAS INCREASING INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE (15-20 KTS 3-5 FEET) LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE FLOW VEERS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.
DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ALL OF WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SOME ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
WIND/SEAS WILL HOIST EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR
LATE TONIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON MARINE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY LOW RHS AOB 35% OVER
NORTHERN AND INTERIOR CENTRAL LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY
HAVE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NATURE COAST...AND GIVEN
MY LATEST RH GRIDS...WILL EXPAND THIS WATCH SOUTH TO INCLUDE INTERIOR
PASCO AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES AS WELL AS POLK...AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. THIS WATCH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED
TO A RED FLAG WARNING BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT
SHIFT EVALUATE MODEL RH TRENDS AND DECIDE WHETHER ONE WILL BE NEEDED OR
NOT. ON SUNDAY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT
IN AN SUBTLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES...BUT STILL MAY SEE AN HOUR
OR TWO OF MARGINALLY LOW RHS FAR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT NOT EXPECTING RED
FLAG CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  83  64  85 /   5   5   5   5
FMY  69  86  66  88 /   5   5   5   5
GIF  63  82  61  86 /   5   5   5   5
SRQ  67  83  63  86 /   5   5   5   5
BKV  56  83  50  85 /   5   5   5   5
SPG  69  81  68  83 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
     HILLSBOROUGH-PASCO-POLK.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-
     SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JCM
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
445 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-131445-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
445 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.