Red Flag Warning 75, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 091916
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
316 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE INLAND PORTIONS
OF THE NATURE COAST AND THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA
FOR 4 TO 6 HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...


FLZ042-048-049-051-100000-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0075.000000T0000Z-060610T0000Z/
CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-
316 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING. 

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA. THIS DRY AIR HAS
FOCUSED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
INLAND CITRUS...HERNANDO...PASCO...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S AND THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ039-043-052-100000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0075.000000T0000Z-060610T0000Z/
LEVY-SUMTER-POLK-
316 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS
WITH HUMIDITY FALLING AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT BY 4 PM. TOTAL DURATION
OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT MAY APPROACH 7 HOURS IN A FEW
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN POLK AND SUMTER COUNTIES.

CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN A BE MORE HUMID IN PORTIONS OF LEVY COUNTY
THUS FAR TODAY...BUT THE DRY AIR IS NEARBY AND COULD MAKE INROADS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...HENCE THE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

BSG

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA KEEPING AN AREA OF ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE STATIONED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND
WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE THE WEATHER PATTERNS OF THE
LAST THREE DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TODAY AND ON
SATURDAY EXPECT BASICALLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
90S THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN...AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND...SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT MAINLY AREAS IN THE INTERIOR SOUTH. 20 POPS ARE IN PLACE
FOR HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF DESOTO...HARDEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES
WHERE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION HAVE BEEN MORE VIGOROUS...AND 10 POPS
FOR CENTRAL AND INTERIOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

ON SUNDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN CHANGING AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE AND THE SURFACE RIDGE LIFTS
NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS IN TERMS OF HOW
FAST THIS EVOLUTION WILL TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY GFS WHICH IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
BRINGING A GREATER MOISTURE FIELD OVER THE AREA. BUT IN GENERAL
THERE IS CONSENSUS IN HAVING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE DAY AND A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST ETA/GFS XSECT
ANALYSIS. OMEGA FIELDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A TREND IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW 30 POPS WILL BE
INCLUDED FOR THE SOUTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA AND DECREASING TO 20 AND 10
PERCENT NORTHWARD...AND WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT MODEL RUNS TO ADJUST
ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO TODAY AND THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING AND COOLING DOWN A BIT ON SUNDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-THU)...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE HAVE ALMOST AS MANY SOLUTIONS AS WE DO MODELS.
THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH A SURFACE LOW OF 1004 MB LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOMING
ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON MONDAY WHEN
A NEW LOW FORMS OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THE GFS IS SEEING A DEEPER
SYSTEM THAN WHAT CURRENTLY EXISTS...WHICH IS CAUSING THE LOW TO GET
CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT.

THE NAM AND UKMET LOOK REASONABLE TO ME...WITH A WEAKER LOW MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. THE
UKMET IS A BIT NORTH OF THE NAM BUT STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE GFS. 12Z
HPC FORECAST ALSO KEEPS A LOW ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE AXIS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PENINSULA...KEEPING MOST OF THE DEEPEST
TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

ACTUALLY...THE GRIDS I INHERITED FOR THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE LOOK
GOOD...SO I AM NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE SURFACE WIND GRIDS. I
DID LOWER POPS A BIT OVER THE GULF WATERS...BUT THAT WILL NOT AFFECT
TEXT PRODUCTS AT ALL AS I LEFT SCATTERED COVERAGE IN PLACE EACH DAY
WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO...BUT WELL ABOVE LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY SINCE THE GFS HAS LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...NO CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW HIGHLIGHT LEVELS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE IN MONDAY AND BEYOND AS THE RIDGE LIFTS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FORM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN REACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN PATCHY GROUND FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EXPERIENCED OVER LEVY...AND SUMTER COUNTIES FOR 4
HOURS OR MORE. POLK MAY ALSO REACH WARNING LEVELS. A RFW IS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH 8 PM EDT FOR THESE COUNTIES. OTHER
INTERIOR AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE 1 TO 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL LEVELS
MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS THERE SHOULD BE
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES BEYOND SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  74  92  76  /   5   0   5  10
FMY  93  73  92  75  /  10   5  20  10
GIF  97  72  96  75  /  10   0  10  10
SRQ  91  73  90  74  /   5   0  10  10
BKV  95  66  94  69  /   5   0   5  10
SPG  90  75  89  76  /   5   0   5  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH 8 PM EDT
     FOR LEVY...SUMTER AND POLK COUNTIES.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...REYNES
LONG TERM/AVIATION....JILLSON