Red Flag Warning 73, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
301 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRI)...HIGH PRES...DRY AIRMASS...AND HOT
AFTERNOON TEMPS THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY...AS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS
SUCH...EAST FLOW MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD MEAN SLOW WC SEA BREEZE
MOVEMENT. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW PWS AOB 1 INCH AND
K-INDX AROUND 0...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY ISOLATED BRIEF
SHOWER ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE SAW THIS PAST EVENING. WILL CARRY A VERY SMALL AREA OF 20
POPS FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES LATER TODAY...BUT MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. TEMPS WILL BE HOT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE DELAYED SEA BREEZE...HIGH REACHING THE LOW-MID 90S.

TYPICAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
DURING THE EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOWS FROM THE L-M 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.

THURSDAY MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE TSTMS IN THIS SHORT
TERM PERIOD...AS LOW LEVEL SE FLOW LEADING UP TO THU WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A WEAK UPR LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH ON THU...ALLOWING BOTH SEA BREEZES A GOOD OPPORTUNITY
TO MOVE INLAND AND COLLIDE LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER IN THIS CASE...
BEST CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. HIGHS ON THU IN THE LOW 90S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY
FRI...AND ITS ASSOC SFC BOUNDARY WILL STALL/DISSIPATE WELL N OF OUR
AREA. WITH OUR CWA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPR TROF...NW FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPR LEVELS WILL DRY THESE LAYERS OUT...AND PWS WILL FALL
BACK TO NEAR 1 INCH DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SFC RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...RESULTING IN WEST BACKGROUND SFC FLOW
WHICH MEANS QUICK INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE WC SEA BREEZE. AS SUCH...
RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIM ON FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY ISOLD SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR DEEP INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ON FRI WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NGT-TUE)...A COMBINATION OF SEVERAL ATMOSPHERIC
FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER A DRY PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE EXPECTED ISOLATED SEA
BREEZE-INDUCED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS. A LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS OVER THE ATLANTIC U.S. COAST...A SURFACE
FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AS MUCH OF IT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. POPS REMAIN AT 20 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS.

ON SUNDAY THE TROUGH BEGINS MIGRATING NORTHWARD AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AREA WHICH WILL BRING RATHER
LIGHT FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH
SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS BASICALLY EVERYWHERE.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE STEADY EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL SLOWLY BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WHERE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY BE MORE EFFICIENT. CURRENT POPS FOR
MONDAY WILL BE KEPT WITH 20 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES...AND 30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR AREAS.
SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF
RAIN AND 30 POPS EVERYWHERE.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY RAISED TEMPS OVER FLORIDA AS
RIDGING AND WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GRIDS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS TREND BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE
MODEL DATA...JUST ONE OR TWO DEGREES IN GENERAL WHICH CALLS FOR A
FORECAST PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST NEXT FEW DAYS REGARDING
WINDS AND SEAS. WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS FOR AREA MARINERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT
BE A BRIEF EASTERLY SURGE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AOB 18 KT WITH THIS SURGE. NO HEADLINES NEEDED FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY EXCEPT FOR
SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES FORM
AND MOVE OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DWPT AND RH PROFILE TODAY INDICATING RED FLAG
WARNING CONDITIONS WILL BE MET FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA TODAY...BASICALLY FROM HILLSBOROUGH/POLK COUNTIES NORTHWARD.
FARTHER SOUTH DOWN TO HIGHLANDS COUNTY...1-3 HOURS OF RH NEAR 35
PERCENT LIKELY...SO WILL HOLD OFF RFW FOR THESE COUNTIES FOR NOW.
DWPTS SHOULD CLIMB SOME ON THURSDAY...AND WITH INCREASED SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY...THINK RH VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  71  90  74 /  10   5  10  10
FMY  93  72  91  73 /  20  20  20  20
GIF  93  72  92  73 /  10   5  20  20
SRQ  89  71  88  73 /  10   5  10  10
BKV  92  62  91  67 /  10   5  10   5
SPG  91  75  86  76 /  10   5  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...NP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
400 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-071800-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
400 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FOUR OR MORE HOURS
OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
INLAND AND NORTH OF TAMPA BAY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR RAPID SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT
MAY START. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION WITH OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.