Red Flag Warning 72, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 070013
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
813 PM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...

.A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL 
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY. FOUR OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
35 PERCENT MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. 

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-052-071230-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0072.000000T0000Z-060607T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0054.060607T1600Z-060608T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
813 PM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING IN BEHIND A TROUGH THAT HAS EXITED THE
AREA. THIS DRY AIR WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY INLAND AND NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT MAY BE POSSIBLE...SO A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 

THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR RAPID SPREAD OF
ANY WILD FIRES THAT MAY START. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION WITH
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
219 AM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THU)...UPR TROF AXIS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH DRY
WNW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC...WEAK TROF MOVING SWRD ACROSS THE TAMPA
BAY AREA...WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR CWA DURING THE REST OF THIS
MORNING. DRY AIRMASS ALREADY EVIDENT IN OUR 00Z SOUNDING WITH PW <1
INCH. WITH DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN AND HIGH PRES BUILDING
UPSTREAM...WX PATTERN SETTING UP FOR WARM AND DRY WX TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY WITH LIGHT
BACKGROUND FLOW...BUT SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL IN OUR CWA.

CLEAR AND COOLER TONIGHT WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY DROPPING A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW 60. WED WILL BE
SUNNY AND WARM AGAIN WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA
AND DRY AIRMASS PERSISTING. VERY LIGHT BACKGROUND FLOW EARLY IN THE
DAY WILL ALLOW TYPICAL INLAND MOVEMENT OF BOTH WC AND EC SEA
BREEZES. BY LATE AFTERNOON...SFC HIGH CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
SUGGESTS SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. HOWEVER WITH PWS STILL AROUND AN INCH...EXPECTING VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SEA BREEZE RW/TSTM DEVELOPMENT...SO POPS LESS THAN 20
PCNT SHOULD COVER THE RISK FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION INLAND ON WED.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S.

ON THU THE NEXT UPR SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. THE SFC
HIGH CENTER WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND A SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
RESULTING E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA AND
W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS
ALIGNMENT OF WINDS WILL RESULT IN RAPID INLAND PROGRESSION OF WC SEA
BREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA AND THE SAME FOR THE EC SEA
BREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. GIVEN THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFOREMENTIONED SEA BREEZE MOVEMENTS...WE
SHOULD SEE AN SMALL INCREASE IN SEA BREEZE RW/TSTM COVERAGE...ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A 20 POP FOR THU AFTERNOON FOR OUR INLAND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS ON THU AGAIN IN THE LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU NGT - MON)...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODEL TRENDS
REGARDING THE OVERALL SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA WHICH WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM AND BASICALLY
LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SEA BREEZES RETURN. BEST CHANCES
WILL AGAIN BE AT INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
PENETRATES FURTHER INLAND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...IT SEEMS THAT THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC U.S. COAST WILL KEEP IT FROM REACHING
FURTHER NORTH AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AREA AND SLOWLY MIGRATES
EASTWARD AND INTO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. COMBINING WITH
SURFACE RIDGING...IT SEEMS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE REGION TO SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK PRES GRADIENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NO HEADLINES NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WITH ONLY SOME BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH RH
EXPECTED TO DROP <35 PCNT FOR 4+ HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA. WILL ISSUE A RFW FOR INLAND AREAS FROM
POLK/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY NORTHWARD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS SIMILARLY
DRY...SO WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  71  90  74 /   5   5  10   5
FMY  91  70  91  73 /   5   5  10   5
GIF  92  69  92  72 /  10   5  10   5
SRQ  88  70  88  71 /   5   5  10   5
BKV  91  60  91  62 /   5   5  10   5
SPG  90  72  90  75 /   5   5  10   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-
     SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...NP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
505 AM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-061800-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
505 AM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL HOURS OF
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
INLAND AND NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. THIS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THESE AREAS...WITH THE RISK FOR RAPID SPREAD
OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT MAY START. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION WITH
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR DAILY SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.