Red Flag Warning 71, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
930 AM EDT MON JUN 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...MORNING TBW SOUNDING SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY WITH
MODIFIED CAPE ABOVE 2500 AND LI AROUND -6.  STILL JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS (BELOW 700 MB) ONCE AGAIN FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.4 INCHES.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THE COMBINATION OF WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE
INSTABILITY AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE
MORNING...THEN DEVELOPING INLAND AS THE ENHANCED SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
LATER THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IN GENERAL THIS IS WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE MADE IT INTO HARDEE AND
DESOTO COUNTIES.  EXPECT TO SEE MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND AND
NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVING THROUGH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.  HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS TO ADD ISOLATED POPS OVER ALL INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THEN
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST OF ISOLATED OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  ONCE AGAIN THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD NOT
REALLY GET GOING UNTIL IT MOVES WELL INLAND AND MOST LIKELY OUT OF
OUR AREA.  HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.  WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECAST SHORTLY TO ADD
ISOLATED POPS TO THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST...OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.  IN GENERAL THE COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST LOOKS OK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR LATE
MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MORNING HAZE AROUND WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 5
MILES AT TPA.  A LINE OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF SRQ NOT THREATENING ANY
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.  TOPS OF SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 20K AND 25K
FEET.  EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE COAST WITH
ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
SETS UP.  TWEB ROUTE WILL BE MAINLY VFR BUT LEG FROM KMIA TO KFMY
WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE....PRC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
429 AM EDT MON JUN 5 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-052030-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
429 AM EDT MON JUN 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...THEN WILL SHIFT INLAND AND SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY BY AFTERNOON.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES
AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE
TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SEVERAL HOURS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AROUND OR BELOW 35 PERCENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH THE RISK FOR
RAPID SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT MAY START. PLEASE USE EXTREME
CAUTION WITH OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES.

THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1207 PM EDT MON JUN 05 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 AM     WATER SPOUT      5 SSW ENGLEWOOD         26.89N 82.37W
06/05/2006                   GMZ856             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATERSPOUT DISSIPATED AFTER 5 MINUTES.

&&

JILLSON