Red Flag Warning 68, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
249 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE
STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE UPPER LEVELS
THERE IS A RIDGE OVER THE STATE WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US.
THESE FEATURES GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE TERM AS A TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE WEST US COAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE GULF. THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL SEND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
THE STATE FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND ALSO LIFT A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO OVER SOUTH FL FOR MONDAY AND THEN
TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH ISOLD STORMS ONLY ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
SCATTERED POPS AT 30 PERCENT...BUT IF THE MORE ROBUST GFS SOLUTION
VERIFIES...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TEMPS STAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN COOL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY WITH THE GREATER CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SAT)...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS.  WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN SOME RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.  AT THE
SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...
FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON.

IN GENERAL...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...BUT DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES AND SOME MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN
ZONES EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ALL
INTERIOR COUNTIES AS WELL AS INLAND LEVY AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL ALLOW RHS TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR
4-6 HOURS WITH MIN RHS IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE. AN UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER THE GULF WILL THEN SEND A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING
TROPICAL AIR OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE
SOME...WITH RHS FALLING BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR ONLY 1-3 HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES ON MONDAY AND ELSEWHERE RHS SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 35 PERCENT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  90  72 /   5   5  10  10
FMY  93  70  90  70 /   5  10  30  20
GIF  94  70  93  70 /   5   5  10  10
SRQ  87  68  87  69 /   5   5  20  10
BKV  92  60  91  63 /   0   5   5   5
SPG  88  74  88  73 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEVY-POLK-
     SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...24
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
550 AM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

FLZ039-042-048>051-055-060-201330-
LEVY-CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-SARASOTA-
550 AM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE THIS
MORNING. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN...USE LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE FOLLOWING DISTANCE BETWEEN
VEHICLES THROUGH 9 AM. THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FLZ043-052-056-057-061-062-065-201330-
SUMTER-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
550 AM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE THIS
MORNING. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN...USE LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE FOLLOWING DISTANCE BETWEEN
VEHICLES THROUGH 9 AM. THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR 4 TO
5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AS WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH LOW
MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING WILDFIRES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING UNTIL SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AS
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.