Red Flag Warning 67, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 210012
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
812 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FOUR OR MORE
HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...RESULTING
IN SEVERAL HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT OVER
INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

FLZ043-052-056-057-061-062-065-211215-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0067.000000T0000Z-060521T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0053.060521T1700Z-060522T0000Z/
SUMTER-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
812 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. 

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TO PRODUCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35
PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS... THUS INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 AM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN US WHILE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
THESE FEATURES SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
TROUGH CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN US AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF WATERS WHILE THE
RIDGE SHIFTS TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND APPROACH SOUTH FL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE ISOLD TSTMS IN ACROSS
THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO STAY NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
MID 90S INLAND AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER
70S NEAR THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (MON NGT-FRI)...LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN WITH SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY CONTINUING TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO KEEPING GENERALLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION... EXCEPT FOR AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH DAY.

FOR TUESDAY THE GFS IS NOW STRONGER WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH BRINGS MOISTURE FURTHER
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE DGEX AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER
AND KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ONLY THE
SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY AND WAIT TO SEE IF GFS CONTINUES THIS
TREND AND/OR OTHER MODELS BRING MORE MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SEA BREEZES AND SOME MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES...TO CAUSE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING LIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NE ACROSS SOUTH FL
WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON TO A WARNING AS RHS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR
4-5 HOURS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY SO
HAVE ALSO PUT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE SAME AREAS FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN ENOUGH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO KEEP RHS JUST ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
FALLING BELOW FOR 1-3 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  71  90  72 /   0   0   5   5
FMY  91  69  92  70 /   0   0   5  10
GIF  93  68  94  70 /   0   0   5   5
SRQ  87  68  87  69 /   0   0   5   5
BKV  91  58  92  61 /   0   0   0   5
SPG  88  70  88  72 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEE-POLK-
     SUMTER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEE-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...24
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69