Alert archive / Florida / Red Flag Warnings in 2006

Red Flag Warning 65, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

May 18, 20065 counties in Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this red flag warning at May 18, 2006, 4:54 AM EDT for 5 counties in Florida. It took effect at May 18, 2006, 1:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 7 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 18, 2006, 4:54 AM EDT (08:54 UTC)
In effect from
May 18, 2006, 1:00 PM EDT
Expired
May 18, 2006, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Counties DeSoto County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Polk County, FL, Sumter County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2006-05-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 11 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2006-05-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -36 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
11 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-11 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1543 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-12 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 180854
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
454 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

......RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA 
FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...RESULTING IN 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35
PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

FLZ052-056-057-061-062-065-190000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0065.060518T1700Z-060519T0000Z/
POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
454 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TODAY. IN ADDITION...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH THE 
THE RISK FOR RAPID SPREAD OF WILD FIRES.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$
3 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS82 KTBW 181743
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
143 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

......RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR
FOUR OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR 
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR FOUR OR MORE
HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...


.HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...RESULTING IN 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
35 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

FLZ052-056-057-061-062-065-190000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0051.060519T1700Z-060520T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0065.000000T0000Z-060519T0000Z/
POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
143 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE THE RISK FOR RAPID SPREAD
OF WILD FIRES.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$
000 
WWUS82 KTBW 181850
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
250 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

......RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR
FOUR OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR FOUR OR MORE
HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...RESULTING IN 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
35 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
WILL INCREASE THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT MAY START WITHIN THE
RED FLAG WARNING AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

FLZ043-190000-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0065.000000T0000Z-060519T0000Z/
SUMTER-
250 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING. 

HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE THE RISK FOR
RAPID SPREAD OF WILD FIRES.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ052-056-057-061-062-065-190000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0065.000000T0000Z-060519T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0051.060519T1700Z-060520T0000Z/
POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
250 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 

HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE THE RISK FOR
RAPID SPREAD OF WILD FIRES.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$


JCM
000 
WWUS82 KTBW 190005
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR FOUR OR MORE
HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA 
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
35 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
WILL INCREASE THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT MAY START WITHIN THE RED
FLAG WARNING AREA.

FLZ052-056-057-061-062-065-191130-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0065.000000T0000Z-060519T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0051.060519T1700Z-060520T0000Z/
POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
805 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BELOW 35 PERCENT...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 

HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH 
GUSTY WEST WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH THE THE RISK FOR RAPID SPREAD OF WILD
FIRES.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ043-190115-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0065.000000T0000Z-060519T0000Z/
SUMTER-
805 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at May 18, 3:59 AM EDT, 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 18, 3:59 AM EDT, 55 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
359 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

.UPDATE...TO FIRE WEATHER...JUST A QUICK NOTE TO SAY WE HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE INTERIOR. THE
COUNTIES INCLUDED WILL BE POLK...HIGHLANDS...HARDEE...DESOTO...
CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY WHERE DRIEST AIR WILL BE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 226 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2006)

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WILL LIFT EVER SO SLOWLY OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS
ALLOWS H5 RIDGING TO BUILD BACK OVER THE PENINSULA BY SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF...
EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND SLIDE EAST. BY SATURDAY...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR 1018 MB WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETTLING
IN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN MILD DRY CONDITIONS TODAY TRANSITIONING TO WARMER AND SLIGHTLY
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY. WARM AND VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
MOVING IN ALOFT AS THE RIDGING SETS IN WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SAT NGT-WED)...HIGH PRES WILL BE THE STORY SAT NT THRU
SUNDAY GIVING US WARM AND DRY WX FOR LATE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY A MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL COMBINE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH TO GIVE US INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. LATEST GFS
NOW SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS CONNECTING WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE SINKING BACK SOUTH
AGAIN AFTER MONDAY...WITH SFC HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL OF OUR WX
RIGHT THRU THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST WARM AND MAINLY DRY TUE-WED...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES CLOSER TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE.

MARINE...BUOY 42036 HAS BEEN RUNNING RIGHT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PRETTY MUCH
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND WINDS AND SEAS BECOME EVEN LIGHTER.

AVIATION...SCAT MID CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ATTM. LCL SCAT
STRATO CU MAY DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT WILL THEN LIFT DURING THE
LATE MORNING WITH HEATING. AFTERNOON WEST WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTY (UP TO 15KT OR SO)...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE DAY.

FIRE WEATHER...SEE UPDATE ABOVE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEE-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE....JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PETRO
Hazardous weather outlook, May 18, 4:51 AM EDT, 3 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
451 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>051-055-060-181500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-
SARASOTA-
451 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SOME AREAS WELL AWAY
FROM THE GULF COAST MAY SEE CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR
ONE TO THREE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY.

FLZ052-056-057-061-062-065-181500-
POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
451 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY. THE MOST CRITICAL AREAS WILL BE WELL AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...
AND IN PARTICULAR...HIGHLANDS COUNTY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET AND RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPIDLY SPREADING WILD FIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DRY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 18, 1:43 PM EDTFire Weather WatchTBWDeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Polk16 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Florida, 2006Every red flag warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.