Red Flag Warning 64, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
910 AM EDT WED MAY 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES. THE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND RIDGES ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW MIN RHS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INLAND ZONES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THESE
LOCATIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE CRITICAL RH DURATIONS TO BE MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO ADJUST THE CLOUDS AND REMOVE EARLY
MORNING SPRINKLES WORDING BUT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS REPORTING GENERALLY N/NW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT. WILL ADJUST THE WINDS DOWN A BIT FOR UPDATE
AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISING AROUND 15 KNOTS BUT REST OF FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERM...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
CURRENTLY ACROSS FMY AND RSW CLEARING OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...24
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
443 AM EDT WED MAY 17 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-171500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
443 AM EDT WED MAY 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ONE TO THREE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. IF THE DRY AIR MOVES IN MORE QUICKLY THAN
FORECAST...A SHORT FUSED RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LARGER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 40
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY FINALLY RETURN ON TUESDAY FOR THE FORMATION OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.