Red Flag Warning 63, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 140755
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS IN THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN
ZONES...AND INCLUDING LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES...

FLZ039-042-043-052-056-057-061-062-065-150000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0063.060514T1600Z-060515T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
355 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA TODAY. HUMIDITY WILL FALL QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHERN ZONES...AND INCLUDING LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES. RH LEVELS
COULD GET CLOSE TO 35 PERCENT OVER SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS.

CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 35 PERCENT EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 75.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PENINSULA WILL AGAIN BRING DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER.
ON MONDAY...A STRONG MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
ARRIVING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL THIS
LOOKS LIKE A VERY MATURE SYSTEM AT ALL LEVELS WITH EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT...CLOSED BROAD LOW AT THE MID LEVELS AND A
STRONG REFLECTION AT THE LOW LEVELS WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE CLOSED
LOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A ROBUST ASSOCIATED LONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF AREA. HPC/GFS/NAM LATEST PRECIP FIELD
ANALYSIS ALL HAVE INCREASED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR A QUARTER OF
AN INCH BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT AND OVERALL HEALTH OF THE SYSTEM THERE IS NO REASON TO
BELIEVE THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH MOST OF THE PRIOR
FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FRONT ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A BIT
RIGHT BEFORE ENTERING NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD AND OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH TUESDAY.
POPS WILL BE INCREASED A LITTLE FOR THIS PERIOD BUT NO HIGHER THAN
50 PERCENT FOR NOW. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE SURROUNDING CWAS AND
FOLLOWS CLOSELY LATEST MOS GUIDANCE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON MAXS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE
INTERIOR. ON MONDAY...THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL
KNOCK DOWN TEMPS TO NEAR CLIMO IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE MID 80S
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SAT)...COOL FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST EARLY TUE NIGHT...WITH ANY REMAINING RAIN ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WED
AND REMAIN OVER THE CWA THRU SAT. TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PD WILL
START OFF COOLER THAN NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WED AND THU...BUT
THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT LEVELS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN RELAX ENOUGH IN ORDER TO KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MAJORITY OF CLOUDS IN
THE MID-HI RANGE. THUS...MAINLY A WIND FORECAST TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8
PM TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR ZONES...AND ALSO INCLUDING
LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES. WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE REMAINING COASTAL COUNTIES
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  68  81  69  /   5  10  40  50
FMY  88  68  84  70  /   5  10  30  40
GIF  90  66  84  66  /   5  10  40  50
SRQ  84  67  80  69  /   5  10  40  50
BKV  86  59  81  61  /  10  10  50  50
SPG  84  70  84  70  /   5  10  40  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND UNTIL 8 PM EDT FOR
     CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEE-POLK-SUMTER-CITRUS-LEVY.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...REYNES
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PETRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
508 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-131515-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
508 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AIRMASS OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TODAY BRINGING FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET BASICALLY
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR PINELLAS COUNTY. BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD
BE AVOIDED AS THE RISK FOR SPREAD OF WILD FIRES WILL BE VERY HIGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR WHICH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THE COASTAL COUNTIES MAY GET A RELIEF IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS ONSHORE AFTERNOON FLOW DEVELOPS.

ON MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVER
THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE RESULTING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED  TODAY.

AR