Red Flag Warning 53, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 301817
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
217 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE...
HIGHLANDS...DESOTO...CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES FOR LONG DURATIONS
OF LOW HUMIDITIES WITH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND DISPERSION INDEX
VALUES AROUND 75...
...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR LEVY...
CITRUS...HERNANDO...SUMTER...PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK
COUNTIES...


FLZ049-051-052-302300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0043.060502T1600Z-060502T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0053.000000T0000Z-060430T2300Z/
PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
217 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35
PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS OVER THE WARNED AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH EXCELLENT
DISPERSION VALUES.

DRY AIR WILL AGAIN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE STATE ON TUESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN 4 OR MORE OURS OF
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ055>057-060>062-065-302300-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0053.000000T0000Z-060430T2300Z/
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
217 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35
PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS OVER THE WARNED AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH EXCELLENT
DISPERSION VALUES.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-048-010230-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0043.060502T1600Z-060502T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
217 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2006

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. 

DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN 4
OR MORE HOURS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 302319
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
719 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2006

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR LEVY...
CITRUS...HERNANDO...SUMTER...PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK
COUNTIES...

FLZ049-051-052-011130-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0053.000000T0000Z-060430T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0043.060502T1600Z-060502T2300Z/
PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
719 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
STATE ON TUESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN 4 OR MORE OURS OF CRITICAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.


$$

FLZ055>057-060>062-065-010030-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0053.000000T0000Z-060430T2300Z/
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
719 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

FLZ039-042-043-048-011130-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0043.060502T1600Z-060502T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
719 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2006

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. 

DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN
4 OR MORE HOURS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
256 AM EDT SUN APR 30 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE STATE CONTINUES
WITH CLOSED UPPER LOWS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND TO THE NW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE AREA AS THE LOW TO THE NW LIFTS AND THE LOW TO THE EAST
SLOWLY SHIFTS ENE THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
DOWN ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE NORTH WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM A FRONT TO THE WEST CAUSING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLOUDINESS MOVING IN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SFC RIDGING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MON WITH THE CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE THEN GETS PINCHED OFF WITH A SECONDARY
HIGH CENTER BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS MON NIGHT AND SETTLING SOUTH
TO OVER THE STATE FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON. HAVE REMOVED ALL RAIN
CHANCES THAT WERE IN THE FORECAST AS MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY PRIOR TO MOVING INTO THE CWA AND SHOULD
PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN INCREASE TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SAT)...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD.
WEAK RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS FROM THE SW GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD
THEN BREAKS DOWN AS UPPER TROF SWINGS THRU AND DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN US BY WEEKS END. SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREAS SLOWLY SINKS S THRU
THE PERIOD. UPPER TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AT THE
END OF THE FCST PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD GENERALLY ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING AS WIND WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SUBSIDE WELL OFFSHORE.
HAVE DOWN-GRADED THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO SCEC AND THAT WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AND WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A SURGE TO NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT SHOULD ONLY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS IN DURATION SO WILL
NOT RAISE A SECONDARY SCEC AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER TOP OF THE STATE THROUGH FRI WITH NO
OTHER CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT BRIEFLY MVFR
FROM SMOKE AND HAZE NEAR FIRE AREAS AROUND FMY AND RSW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FROM PASCO SOUTH
FOR RH DURATION WITH WIND AND HIGH DISPERSIONS. CLOUDINESS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND KEEP TEMP FROM SPIKING AND DEW
POINTS FROM DROPPING AS MUCH WITH ONLY 1-3 HOURS OF SUB-35 RH
EXPECTED. TUESDAY DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS ON TOP OF THE STATE. RHS WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY NEED A WATCH FOR THE AREA BUT IT IS A BIT TOO FAR OUT IN
TIME TO ISSUE ANYTHING NOW. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  62  84  63 /   5  10  10   5
FMY  85  60  86  63 /   5   5  10   5
GIF  83  61  85  61 /   5  10  10   5
SRQ  84  60  84  61 /   5  10  10   5
BKV  83  56  85  55 /  10  10  10   5
SPG  82  65  82  66 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-
     LEE-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...24
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
519 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-291530-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
519 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...20 FOOT WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH AND DISPERSION
INDEX VALUES OF 75 OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WELL. THESE
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE
SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT MAY START TODAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD BE EXTRA CAREFUL WITH
ANY OUTDOOR OPEN FLAMES OR BARBECUES TODAY.

STRONG WINDS OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE
ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY REACH UP TO 6 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE. FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT
TO POSTPONE TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY
RESULT IN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROUGH IN THE MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.