Red Flag Warning 52, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 292305
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
705 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2006

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...MANATEE...
SARASOTA...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...DESOTO...CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES FOR LOW HUMIDITIES WITH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH...

.HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER FLORIDA BRINGING DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH AND EXCELLENT DISPERSION VALUES.

FLZ049-051-052-055>057-060>062-065-301200-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0052.000000T0000Z-060429T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0042.060430T1700Z-060430T2300Z/
PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
705 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
WILL AGAIN CAUSE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS
IN THE FIELD.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-048-050-300015-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0052.000000T0000Z-060429T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PINELLAS-
705 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
248 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2006

.SHORT TERM...WV SAT IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWING TWO UPPER
LOWS SPINNING OFF HATTERAS AND OVER THE PLAINS WHILE NARROW
RIDGING PREVAILS BETWEEN THEM FROM THE S GULF INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SHORT TERM BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES MOVING OVER THE AREA BY MON.

SFC FEATURES STACKED UNDER UPPER FEATURES WITH SFC STORM SYSTEM
CENTERED OFF HATTERAS AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE SFC RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND DOWN OVER FL WHILE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN ALL FEATURES. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. LOW DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN ALLOW OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DROP AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUN/SUN NT...FIRST SHORTWAVE TO ATTEMPT TO TRAVERSE RIDGE AND SUPPRESS
IT WHILE WEAK SFC LOW/FRONT FEATURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. WITH LACK OF MOISTURE DONT EXPECT MUCH OVER NORTHERN AREAS
BUT WILL KEEP GENEROUS 10-20 POPS ATTM. MAX TEMPS AGAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL. SLOW MODIFICATION OF ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES WITH 10 POPS
OVERNIGHT AS SECOND VORT MAX MOVES OVER THE AREA AS MIN TEMPS BUMP
UP A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO CLIMO.

MON...ANOTHER VORT MAX TO MOVE OVER THE REGION NOW IN NEAR ZONAL
WHILE DECAYING SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE STATE. AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES TO DEV AND PROVIDE EXTRA LL LIFT IN FAIRLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO 20 POPS AREAWIDE. TEMPS AGAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (MON NGT-FRI)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WED. A WEAKENING FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL FL BY WED NIGHT. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIP...BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FL WITH THE STALLING FRONT TO THE NORTH AND THEN MERGES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
STATE. THE HIGH CENTER THEN SHIFTS EAST THROUGH FRI AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. MAX TEMPS STAY IN THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90...AND MIN TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT FORMING BETWEEN SFC HIGH RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE N WHILE SFC STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING IN THE S
PLAINS. GRADIENT TO SUPPORT 15-20 KTS WINDS ELEVATING SEAS UP TO 6
FT WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE HOISTED SCEC ALL GULF WATERS WHILE TAMPA
BAY EXPECT TO HOLD JUST UNDER CRITERIA AT 15 KTS WITH BRIEFLY
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT REMAINS CONSTANT TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO RELAX LATE SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. TODAY LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY EASTERLY 20
FT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY AS WELL AS DISPERSION INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 75. HAVE RAISED RED FLAG WARNING ALL AREAS TODAY DUE TO
INCREASED DANGER. DRY AIR TO AGAIN BE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
SUN...MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS FOR POTENTIAL LONG DURATION LOW RH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  61  83  63 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  86  60  85  61 /   0   0   5  10
GIF  84  61  83  62 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  85  58  83  60 /   0   0   5  10
BKV  85  54  83  56 /   0   0  20  20
SPG  83  65  81  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
     HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
     SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
  FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
  ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
  ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
  SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20
  TO 60 NM.

&&

RD/JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
519 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-291530-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
519 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...20 FOOT WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH AND DISPERSION
INDEX VALUES OF 75 OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WELL. THESE
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE
SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT MAY START TODAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD BE EXTRA CAREFUL WITH
ANY OUTDOOR OPEN FLAMES OR BARBECUES TODAY.

STRONG WINDS OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE
ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY REACH UP TO 6 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE. FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT
TO POSTPONE TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY
RESULT IN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROUGH IN THE MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.