Alert archive / Florida / Red Flag Warnings in 2006
Red Flag Warning 46, NWS Tampa Bay, FL
NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this red flag warning at Apr 7, 2006, 5:18 AM EDT for 6 counties in Florida. It took effect at Apr 7, 2006, 11:32 AM EDT. It was in force for 7 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 7, 2006, 5:18 AM EDT (09:18 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 7, 2006, 11:32 AM EDT
- Expired
- Apr 7, 2006, 7:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Counties DeSoto County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Polk County, FL, Sumter County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 49 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1452 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -106 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -47 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS82 KTBW 070918 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 518 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR INLAND LEVY...SUMTER...POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT AND WIND OF 15 MPH OR GREATER... .WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BRING HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL EXACERBATE THE PROBLEM. FLZ043-052-057-072300- /O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0036.060407T1700Z-060407T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0046.060407T1700Z-060407T2300Z/ SUMTER-POLK-HIGHLANDS- 518 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND A HIGHER MIXING HEIGHT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN...REDUCING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ039-072300- /O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0046.060407T1700Z-060407T2300Z/ LEVY- 518 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A HIGHER MIXING HEIGHT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN...REDUCING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$
2 follow-up statements
000 WWUS82 KTBW 071532 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1132 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER... HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...HARDEE... DESOTO...POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT AND WIND OF 15 MPH OR GREATER... .WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL DRYING OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BRING HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL EXACERBATE THE PROBLEM. FLZ042-048>051-055-056-061-072300- /O.EXB.KTBW.FW.W.0046.060407T1532Z-060407T2300Z/ CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-HARDEE- DE SOTO- 1132 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND A HIGHER MIXING HEIGHT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN...REDUCING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ039-043-052-057-072300- /O.EXT.KTBW.FW.W.0046.060407T1532Z-060407T2300Z/ LEVY-SUMTER-POLK-HIGHLANDS- 1132 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A HIGHER MIXING HEIGHT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN...REDUCING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ JCM
000 WWUS82 KTBW 071818 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 217 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING UPDATED TO INCLUDE CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES... ...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER... HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...HARDEE... DESOTO...POLK...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT AND WIND OF 15 MPH OR GREATER... .WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL DRYING OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BRING HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL EXACERBATE THE PROBLEM. FLZ062-065-072300- /O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0046.000000T0000Z-060407T2300Z/ CHARLOTTE-LEE- 217 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND A HIGHER MIXING HEIGHT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN...REDUCING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-061-072300- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0046.000000T0000Z-060407T2300Z/ LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO- 217 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND A HIGHER MIXING HEIGHT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN...REDUCING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Apr 7, 2:38 AM EDT, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 7, 2:38 AM EDT, 2 hours 40 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
238 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...ANOTHER WARM DRY DAY TODAY WITH RIDGING
ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. GRADIENT TO INCREASE AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OVER PLAINS TO MID WEST TODAY. S-SW FLOW TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...DUE TO GULF TEMPS IN LOW-MID 70S.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS KICKS EAST AND COMES IN PHASE WITH
NORTHERN TROF TO PRODUCE SHORT LIVED PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE OVER
EASTERN U.S. SAT THEN W ATLANTIC SUN. TROF DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH COLD
FRONT THRU THE DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF 20-25 UNIT VORT MAX SAT THEN
OVER THE FL PENINSULA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MODELS DIFFER IN
STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND MOISTURE FIELDS OVER THE STATE. GFS STRONGER
AND FASTER WITH ONLY NARROW BAND OF PRECIP WHILE NAM IS WEAKEN
AND SLOWER WITH A LARGER PRECIP FIELD. WITH ATMOSPHERE FINALLY SHOWING
PWATS AROUND 1 INCH TODAY AND MODELS SOUNDING INDICATING ABOUT 1.25-1.50
AHEAD OF FRONT EXPECT TO SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED PRECIP...BUT EXACT
TIMING PLACEMENT AND RAIN FALL TOTALS REMAINS IN DOUBT. WILL HOLD
ON TO LOW END SCT POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES CLOSEST TO BEST ENERGY
AND ISOLATED 20 POPS ELSEWHERE SAT NT/SUN. MET MOS HAS INCREASED
POPS WHILE MAV MOS HAS LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY TO ADD MORE UNCERTAINTY TO
THE MIX. TEMPS TO HOLD AT OR ABOVE CLIMO THRU THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-THU)...THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY SUN NIGHT WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF. MODELS HAVE THE SHORTWAVE MOVING EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FL WITH THE GFS STILL THE
STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM. SHOULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY CLEARING OUT THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
STAY NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE TERM WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN TODAY BETWEEN RIDGE AND DEEPENING
MID WEST STORM SYSTEM. GRADIENT REMAIN TIGHT SAT AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
NE U.S. AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN PASSES OVER AREA SAT/SUN.
WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN INCREASE TODAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. POSSIBLE SCEC+ CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT WILL WAIT
ON HIGHLIGHTS THIS PACKAGE AS CONDITIONS ARE STILL TO UNFOLD. HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MON/TUE ON STRONG NE/E WINDS TO
KEEP ELEVATED CONDITIONS OVER E GULF.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SOME LCL
MVFR VISBYS POSSIBLY TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRIEST AIR TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND INTERIOR
AREAS TODAY. LOW DEW POINTS AND AFTERNOON MIXING TO AGAIN DROP MIN
RHS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR 4+ HOURS ALSO WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
TO COMBINE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS INTERIOR
LEVY...SUMTER...POLK...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. LL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE SAT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LOW END CHANCES FOR RAIN.
ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS TO FILTER OVER N FL SUN-TUE BEHIND FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 83 68 83 68 / 0 5 10 20
FMY 85 66 86 68 / 0 5 5 10
GIF 88 65 88 66 / 0 5 10 20
SRQ 81 66 82 67 / 0 5 10 20
BKV 86 59 85 60 / 0 5 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR HIGHLANDS-LEVY-POLK-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
RD/JCHazardous weather outlook, Apr 7, 5:08 AM EDT, 10 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 508 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006 FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-071515- LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 508 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT DRY AIR REMAINS OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY AND THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES FROM NOON TO 7 PM EST AND THUS A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASE SEAS. SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Florida, 2006Every red flag warning in 2006
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.