Alert archive / Florida / Red Flag Warnings in 2006
Red Flag Warning 45, NWS Tampa Bay, FL
NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this red flag warning at Apr 5, 2006, 1:24 PM EDT for 6 counties in Florida. It took effect at Apr 6, 2006, 5:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 14 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 5, 2006, 1:24 PM EDT (17:24 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 6, 2006, 5:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Apr 6, 2006, 7:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 14 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Counties DeSoto County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Polk County, FL, Sumter County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 49 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1360 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 49 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS82 KTBW 051724 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 124 PM EDT WED APR 5 2006 ...DRY AIR CONTINUING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THURSDAY... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH 4 OR MORE HOURS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AND HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW. FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-052-055>057-061-052300- /O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0034.060406T1700Z-060406T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0045.060406T1700Z-060406T2300Z/ /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0044.000000T0000Z-060405T2300Z/ LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE- HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO- 124 PM EDT WED APR 5 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. VERY DRY AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAVING FALLEN TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT AS OF 1 PM. UP TO 8 HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. A SLIGHT MODIFICATION IN THE AIR MASS WILL INCREASE DEW POINTS A BIT ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT IN MOST OF THE WARNED AREA...WITH BETWEEN 4 AND 7 HOURS TOTAL DURATION EXPECTED. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ060-062-065-052300- /O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0035.060406T1700Z-060406T2300Z/ /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0044.000000T0000Z-060405T2300Z/ SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 124 PM EDT WED APR 5 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. VERY DRY AIR IS SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AS OF 1 PM. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT BY 3 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM. UP TO 8 HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. A SLIGHT MODIFICATION IN THE AIR MASS WILL INCREASE DEW POINTS A BIT ON THURSDAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...4 OR MORE HOUR DURATIONS ARE NOT YET CERTAIN. STAY TUNED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WARNING OVERNIGHT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN 24 TO 48 HOURS OR MORE. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ BSG
4 follow-up statements
000 WWUS82 KTBW 052347 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 747 PM EDT WED APR 5 2006 ...DRY AIR CONTINUING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH 4 OR MORE HOURS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AND HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW. FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-052-055>057-061-061200- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0045.060406T1700Z-060406T2300Z/ LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE- HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO- 747 PM EDT WED APR 5 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY... VERY DRY AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAVING FALLEN TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT AS OF 1 PM. UP TO 8 HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. A SLIGHT MODIFICATION IN THE AIR MASS WILL INCREASE DEW POINTS A BIT ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT IN MOST OF THE WARNED AREA...WITH BETWEEN 4 AND 7 HOURS TOTAL DURATION EXPECTED. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ060-062-065-061200- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0035.060406T1700Z-060406T2300Z/ SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 747 PM EDT WED APR 5 2006 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... VERY DRY AIR IS SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AS OF 1 PM. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT BY 3 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM. UP TO 8 HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. A SLIGHT MODIFICATION IN THE AIR MASS WILL INCREASE DEW POINTS A BIT ON THURSDAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...4 OR MORE HOUR DURATIONS ARE NOT YET CERTAIN. STAY TUNED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WARNING OVERNIGHT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN 24 TO 48 HOURS OR MORE. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$
000 WWUS82 KTBW 060900 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 500 AM EDT THU APR 6 2006 ...DRY AIR CONTINUING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...WITH 4 OR MORE HOURS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AND HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW. FLZ060-062-065-062300- /O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0035.060406T1700Z-060406T2300Z/ /O.EXB.KTBW.FW.W.0045.060406T1600Z-060406T2300Z/ SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 500 AM EDT THU APR 6 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A SLIGHT MODIFICATION IN THE AIR MASS WILL INCREASE DEW POINTS A BIT TODAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH DURATIONS OF 4 TO 5 HOURS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ050-062300- /O.EXB.KTBW.FW.W.0045.060406T1600Z-060406T2300Z/ PINELLAS- 500 AM EDT THU APR 6 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT MODIFICATION IN THE AIR MASS WILL INCREASE DEW POINTS A BIT TODAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH DURATIONS AROUND 4 HOURS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-052-055>057-061-062300- /O.EXT.KTBW.FW.W.0045.060406T1600Z-060406T2300Z/ LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE- HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO- 500 AM EDT THU APR 6 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT MODIFICATION IN THE AIR MASS WILL INCREASE DEW POINTS A BIT TODAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT IN MOST OF THE WARNED AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...WITH DURATIONS BETWEEN 4 AND 7 HOURS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ PRC
000 WWUS82 KTBW 061824 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 224 PM EDT THU APR 6 2006 ...DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW HUMIDITY EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...WITH 4 TO 8 HOURS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY BRING HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL DISPERSION VALUES AS WELL IN MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. FLZ043-052-057-062300- /O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0036.060407T1700Z-060407T2300Z/ /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0045.000000T0000Z-060406T2300Z/ SUMTER-POLK-HIGHLANDS- 224 PM EDT THU APR 6 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN SUMTER COUNTY...AND ARE FALLING TOWARD 35 PERCENT IN POLK AND 40 PERCENT IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY. BY 3 PM...MOST OF POLK COUNTY SHOULD BE BELOW 35 PERCENT AS WILL THE NORTHERN THIRD OF HIGHLANDS COUNTY. DURATION OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 4 HOURS IN SOUTHERN POLK AND NORTHERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY TO 8 HOURS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTY...WHERE MINIMUM VALUES WILL REACH 20 PERCENT OR LESS. ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND A HIGHER MIXING HEIGHT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN...REDUCING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY NEAR OR BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE INCREASED WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN LAVDAS DISPERSION INDEX VALUES OF 75 OR GREATER...CRITICAL TO ENHANCING THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS OR MORE. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ039-042-048>051-055-056-060>062-065-062300- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0045.000000T0000Z-060406T2300Z/ LEVY-CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-HARDEE- SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 224 PM EDT THU APR 6 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE SUNCOAST FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH LEVY COUNTY...WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN BELOW 20 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS. SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...INCLUDING THE SUNCOAST AS WELL AS HARDEE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...HUMIDITY VALUES WERE APPROACHING 35 PERCENT AND SHOULD FALL TO BETWEEN 28 AND 34 PERCENT FOR UP TO 4 HOURS BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM. PLEASE CONTINUE TO ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ BSG
000 WWUS82 KTBW 062307 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 707 PM EDT THU APR 6 2006 ...DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW HUMIDITY EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY BRING HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL DISPERSION VALUES AS WELL IN MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. FLZ043-052-057-071115- /O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0045.000000T0000Z-060406T2300Z/ /O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0036.060407T1700Z-060407T2300Z/ SUMTER-POLK-HIGHLANDS- 707 PM EDT THU APR 6 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND A HIGHER MIXING HEIGHT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN... REDUCING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY NEAR OR BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE INCREASED WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN DISPERSION INDEX VALUES OF 75 OR GREATER...CRITICAL TO ENHANCING THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS OR MORE. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ039-042-048>051-055-056-060>062-065-070015- /O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0045.000000T0000Z-060406T2300Z/ LEVY-CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-HARDEE- SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 707 PM EDT THU APR 6 2006 ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED... THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Apr 5, 1:16 PM EDT, 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 5, 1:16 PM EDT, 8 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
116 PM EDT WED APR 5 2006
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...FAIR WARM DAYS WITH ONE
COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT (TONIGHT) SUMS UP THIS FORECAST. CHAMBER-
OF-COMMERCE WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN STILL NICE BUT A
BIT WARMER INLAND...AND MORE HUMID NEAR THE COAST...BY FRIDAY. ALL
THIS COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE 500
MB RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT INTO THE AREA BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AIDING A 10 DEGREE RISE IN NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING COMPARED TO FRIDAY MORNING. AS USUAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WITH THIS PATTERN...BEACHES WILL BE SOME 7
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER WHEN THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN...PROBABLY
AROUND NOON EACH DAY. ENJOY...AGAIN
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THE CWFA INTO SAT WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPS RUNNING ABOVE CLIMO. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE
GULF BY THE END OF SAT. THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD SUN WITH THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT MOVES INTO FL WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL. THIS FRONT MAY
SAG INTO SOUTH FL MON BUT CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS
THE CWFA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GULF AND ACROSS FL...
WITH A WEAK WAVE(S) FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. THE WAVE(S) MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS NORTH FROM THE GULF AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. THE GFS/DGEX/ECMWF ALL ARE SIMILAR IN THE BIG PICTURE BUT
HAVE ISSUES WITH LOCATION AND TIMING. THE LATEST GFS(12Z) IS NOW
PUSHING THE FRONT WELL TO THE SE OF THE AREA. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT
THE LOW ODDS OF PCPN MON WOULD BE EVEN LOWER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT FORECAST IN PLACE WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS SOLIDLY UNDERWAY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A CRASH IN DEW POINTS AROUND 11 AM LEADING TO
CURRENT HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT CENTRAL/NORTH.
THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND WARNING AREA SHOULD
EASILY VERIFY WITH 5 TO 8 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PINELLAS
AS SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY BEING OVERTAKEN BY DRY AIR FLOW FROM THE
NORTH.
MORE OF THE SAME THURSDAY DESPITE THE GRADUAL TURNING OF THE WINDS
TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SOME HIGH-BASED (6K FEET) CUMULUS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS ABOVE...BUT THICK LAYER OF DRY
AIR AND ANALOGOUS SITUATIONS IN APRILS PAST MAKE TOMORROW A LOCK
FOR THE CURRENT WATCH AREA...SO UPGRADE IS IN ORDER. SOUTHWEST
CORNER IS ALWAYS TRICKY AND WILL OFFER WATCH FOR NOW AS CRITICAL
HUMIDITY DURATIONS INLAND WILL FLIRT WITH 4 HOURS BUT MAY NOT REACH.
FRIDAY IS SHOWING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A HOT DRY SITUATION
ACROSS INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER TOWARD THE EAST COAST
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH...PERHAPS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING EXPECTED AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 90 WHILE DEWPOINTS PLUNGE INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 50S. BECAUSE THE GFS IS A BIT LESS AGRESSIVE WITH 2M
TEMP/DEWPOINT WILL HOLD OFF ON AN INTERIOR WATCH AND DEFER TO NEXT
SHIFT.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS/SLIGHT SEAS AWAY FROM SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTH...THEN
SOUTHWEST...FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE NEXT AIRMASS FRONT AND ADVERTISES NEAR CAUTION VALUES
ON SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS VEER TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
TRENDS AND WILL NOT BITE ON JUST A SINGLE RUN. THAT SAID...WHEN
DRY KEEP IT DRY...SO THIS PATTERN SHIFT WOULD NOT SURPRISE US.
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR. NORTHERLY WINDS 10KTS WILL BACK TO MORE NW THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE AFTER S/S AS THEY VEER TO N AND THEN
NE BY LATE THU MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 56 82 63 83 / 0 0 0 5
FMY 56 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 5
GIF 54 86 61 88 / 0 0 0 5
SRQ 55 81 63 82 / 0 0 0 5
BKV 42 84 51 86 / 0 0 0 5
SPG 60 81 66 83 / 0 0 0 5
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR CITRUS-DE
SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-MANATEE-
PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-LEE-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
SHORT TERM...88/BSG
LONG TERM/AVIATION....09/RKRHazardous weather outlook, Apr 5, 5:31 AM EDT, 7 hours 53 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 531 AM EDT WED APR 5 2006 FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-051545- LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 531 AM EDT WED APR 5 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES FROM NOON TO 7 PM EST AND THUS A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NATURE COAST AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND BEYOND SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE SITUATION AND BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BACK TO ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. OTHERWISE...NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. PRC
The office that day
Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 1:24 PM EDT | Fire Weather Watch | TBW | 16 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Florida, 2006Every red flag warning in 2006
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.