Red Flag Warning 41, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
104 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-TUE)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN TONIGHT INTO MON AS TROFS COME IN PHASE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WEAK SFC RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF SHALLOW LL MOISTURE TO
AGAIN PRODUCE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. HAVE ADDED TO GRIDS AND
ZONES ALL AREA TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS CONTINUE ABOVE CLIMO. ON MONDAY
SFC FRONT MOVES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH LL FLOW BECOMING SW/W
WITH WARM INTERIOR TEMPS AND LOWER TEMPS NEAR THE COAST OF THE
COOLER E GULF.

TUE...WEAKENING UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH SFC COLD FRONT OVER THE
AREA. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY SLOT AT MID LEVELS.
SO ONLY EXPECT FAST MOVING LOW TOPPED ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AT ABOUT ONLY 10 POPS AHEAD OF FRONT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WELL
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS TO FITLER INTO THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS LATE TUE. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM....LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SUN)...AN UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE NE
U.S. BY LATE WED AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OVER THE PLAINS
AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THESE FEATURES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THU...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
REACHING FL AND THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
FRI. THIS MAINTAINS DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPS THAT
WARM TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH OUT THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE DEEP RIDGING MOVES EAST OF FL
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST SAT THAT PUSHES EAST SUN...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SUN...COOLING TEMPS
SLIGHTLY. MOISTURE AND ENERGY APPEAR TOO LIMITED ACROSS THE CWFA
TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
GRIDS AND FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK SFC RIDGE TO HOLD INTO MONDAY. DRY COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP OVER THE WATERS TUE WITH WIND SHIFT TO NW. HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATE TUE THRU MID WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
SLIGHTLY INCREASE TUE IN THE 10 TO 15 KTS RANGE AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS
WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS MAINLY OFFSHORE. RIDGE N OF THE AREA KEEPS
NE-E WINDS THRU THE WEEK BELOW HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
PROVIDING WESTERLY WINDS OVER COASTAL AIRPORTS WILL COLLAPSE AROUND
S/S WITH WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING. MVFR VSBY WILL CREEP BACK IN AROUND
08-09Z AND LAST UNTIL ABOUT 14Z. AS HAPPENED THIS MORNING THERE MAY
BE SOME ISOLD IFR FOG BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION IN THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD OF THE TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LL MOISTURE TO KEEP MIN RH ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
MON. BEHIND FRONT...TUE...DRY AIRMASS OVER N FL SO EXPECT LOW RH
WITH DURATIONS UP NORTH...BUT EXACT EXTENT STILL IN DOUBT WILL
HOLD OFF ON WATCH ATTM. WED DRY AIR FILTERES FURTHER DOWN PENINSULA
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LOW RH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  81  66  80 /   0   5   5  10
FMY  62  85  64  84 /   0   5   5  10
GIF  63  86  64  85 /   0   5   5  10
SRQ  61  79  65  79 /   0   5   5  10
BKV  56  83  56  81 /   0   5   5  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

RD/RR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
450 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-021400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
450 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO AN HOUR OR
TWO OF NEAR-CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN
HARDEE...DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE STATE LATE TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO CRITICAL
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY.