Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WGUS72 KTBW 302030
FFSTBW

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
430 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

FLC055-302039-
HIGHLANDS-
430 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY...

THOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF
HIGH STANDING WATER ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IF
ENCOUNTERING WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS THEM
BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE.

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
ADDITIONAL FLOOD ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. STAY TUNED TO 
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR UPDATES.

DONT BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN


&&

LAT...LON 2703 8156 2703 8127 2751 8121 2764 8114
      2764 8156

$$

69

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

.SYNOPSIS...RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ALL
WARNINGS OVER THE AREA HAVE BEEN CANCELED. FLOOD WATCH STILL IN
EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
IN RUSKIN WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING ESTIMATED BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES AN
HOUR AS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD. ISOLATED SPOTS HAVE SHOWN SOME ESTIMATED VALUES OF 1 TO 3
INCHES AN HOUR...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY.
RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION WILL TRAIL THE REMNANT CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THE NORTHERN CLOUD BANDS OF THE
DEPRESSION ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE DEPRESSION WILL MOST
LIKELY BE PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR FRIDAY...POPS REMAIN ON THE 50 PERCENT RANGE MOSTLY EVERYWHERE
AS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON MAXS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDY SKIES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RISE TO NEAR CLIMO
VALUES ON FRIDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN AT OR NEAR NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...VIGOROUS TRAILING UPPER
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IN THE WAKE OF ERNESTO ALONG WITH RESIDUAL DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS HELPING TO INCREASE
UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AND HIGH
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF OF THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE DRIEST
AIR NOTED FROM THE NATURE COAST NORTH ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AS ONE MOVES SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THESE TRENDS WILL DEPICT THE
HIGHEST POP CHANCES (70%) FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH ON
SATURDAY...TRENDING BACK TO THE SCATTERED RANGE OVER THE NATURE
COAST. DURING SUNDAY THE SHEAR/MOISTURE AXIS AND BEST RAIN CHANCE
SHIFTS SOUTH A BIT WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER LEVY LIMITING POPS TO
20% THEN TRENDING UP TO LOW TO MID END SCATTERED RANGE (40%)
CENTRAL ZONES...AND LIKELY CATEGORY (60%) FROM ROUGHLY A MANATEE TO
HIGHLANDS COUNTY LINE SOUTH.

DURING LABOR DAY THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE AND SHEAR AXIS SAG EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH...WITH HIGHEST POPS 50% EXPECTED OVER CHARLOTTE AND
LEE COUNTIES TAPERING BACK TO 20% OVER THE NATURE COAST. DURING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE PERSISTENT SHEAR AND DEEPEST MOISTURE AXIS
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PENINSULA. THIS
WILL SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL POP CHANCES ALL ZONES WITH DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...THEN
NEAR NORMAL RETURN FOR LABOR AND MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER
FLORIDA TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AS
RAINBANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND. PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST BANDS. WINDS IN GENERAL WILL
SHIFT FROM NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING AND MAY BE EXTENDED IF NECESSARY. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT IF POSSIBLE UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF THE
DEPRESSION HAVE DIMINISHED. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN
SOUTH OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY AND MIGRATES NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND
WITH WINDS BACK TO SE AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE BANDS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
OF THE RAIN BANDS MAY CONTINUE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...OTHERWISE
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN EARLY TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO RH CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  88  78  89  /  50  60  40  50
FMY  77  87  75  90  /  50  60  40  50
GIF  76  89  75  90  /  60  60  30  50
SRQ  78  88  77  89  /  50  60  40  50
BKV  74  88  72  88  /  50  60  30  50
SPG  80  88  80  88  /  50  60  40  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM AND INCLUDING
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...AR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
546 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-301500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
546 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH OUT THE DAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE
MORNING RAIN THAT BECOMES LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH
ANY HEAVIER STORMS. IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...OR
WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...MOVE TO SAFETY INSIDE A
STURDY BUILDING OR STRUCTURE.

HEAVY RAINS MAY RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. REMEMBER...NEVER DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS
THE ROADWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RAIN LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
MORE TYPICAL PATTERED OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR FRIDAY TO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FLZ050-051-055-056-060>062-065-GMZ830-301500-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-HARDEE-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-
LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
546 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH
ANY HEAVIER STORMS. IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...OR
WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...MOVE TO SAFETY INSIDE A
STURDY BUILDING OR STRUCTURE.

HEAVY RAINS MAY RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. REMEMBER...NEVER DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS
THE ROADWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RAIN LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
MORE TYPICAL PATTERED OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR FRIDAY TO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FLZ052-057-301500-
POLK-HIGHLANDS-
546 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG WITH A FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH
ANY HEAVIER STORMS. IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...OR
WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...MOVE TO SAFETY INSIDE A
STURDY BUILDING OR STRUCTURE.

HEAVY RAINS MAY RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. REMEMBER...NEVER DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS
THE ROADWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RAIN LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
MORE TYPICAL PATTERED OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR FRIDAY TO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.