Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
148 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUN)...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT ACROSS FL OVERNIGHT TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFT UP TO THE NORTH SOME DURING SUN. AS THE
AXIS MOVES OVER THE CWFA...DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL EXIT TO THE E AND NE AS SOME DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW.
AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FL SAGS SOUTH INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL FL TONIGHT AND CENTRAL FL DURING SAT BEFORE REACHING
THE SOUTH CWFA LATE SAT. THE BOUNDARY WILL WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN
BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE BY LATE DAY SUN. GIVEN THE ENERGY ALOFT
AND DEEP MOISTURE BOTH ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACHING FROM THE S
AND SW WILL KEEP LIKELY/NUMEROUS POPS IN OVER NIGHT AND THEN ALLOW
THEN TO TREND DOWN/ FROM NORTH TO SOUTH/ SAT INTO SUN AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK
FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  AS BERMUDA HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDS WEST AND
NORTH BEGINNING MONDAY...THE FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL RESUME.  COVERAGE COULD REMAIN A
BIT LOW (30/40 PERCENT) NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WHERE REMAINING DRY AIR
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING 500 MB TROUGH COULD HANG TOUGH...BUT
BEING DAY 3 PREFER TO LEAVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TYPE VALUES (50
PERCENT) AS IS.  TUESDAY PROVIDES DEEPER MOISTURE BUT ALSO A BIT
MORE EASTERLY FLOW...SUGGESTING SCATTERED EARLY ACTIVITY INLAND
JUMPING TO OR NEAR THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY LENDS CREEDENCE TO A CONTINUED 50/50
CHANCE/COVERAGE FORECAST.

THE EASTERLY WAVE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST IN THE LATE TERM (DAYS
5-7) AND IS NOW JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL BOOST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE FOR A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD...BUT EXACTLY WHEN REMAINS FUZZY SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN SKY COVER AND LOWERING OF
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.  FOUR OF THE PAST FIVE GFS RUNS MOVE
THE WAVE SOLIDLY INTO THE GULF UNDERNEATH THE STRONG 500 MB
RIDGE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE.  THAT
SAID...EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY
ALLOW BETTER COLLISIONS TOWARD THE COAST...SO HAVE ONLY DROPPED
COVERAGE BACK A SMIDGE.  TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD BE
RIGHT IN LINE WITH MID JULY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS SHIFT AROUND AT 10 KTS OR LESS AS BOUNDARY MOVES
DOWN THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TSTMS PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, HIGHER SEAS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY
AT 10KT OR 10-15KT FRO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...WHILE CONVECTION IS WIDESPREAD ITS ORGANIZATION IS
NOT. MOST SITES HAVE MISSED THE MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY...BUT
JUST ABOUT ALL HAVE SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IFR
CONDITIONS (AS DEFINED BY THE TEMPO GROUP). THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
PROVIDE MORE OF THE SAME AS THE DEEPER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REDEVELOP IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE THICKER MID
LEVEL CANOPY OVER THE NATURE COAST.

AS MENTIONED THIS MORNING...THINGS GET A BIT TRICKIER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...AM GAINING CONFIDENCE IN BETTER ORGANIZED
BANDED PRECIPITATION...LOCALLY HEAVY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS (KSRQ-KTPA) AS UPPER JET DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER. THE
THINKING HERE IS SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z BUT PERHAPS EASING
SOUTH THEREAFTER.  WILL DROP TO MVFR PREVAILING AND IFR TEMPO
CONDITIONS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW CONSECUTIVE HOURS
OF IFR WHERE THE BAND EVENTUALLY SETS UP.  LEANING ON THE GFS
SOLUTION ARGUES FOR ADDITIONAL MORNING ACTIVITY FROM KSRQ SOUTH AND
PERHAPS MORE BARK (CLOUDS/LIGHTER RAINS) THAN BITE (HEAVY STORMS)
FARTHER NORTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH...SOME DRIER AIR/ BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ WILL PUSH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DOWN TO NEAR
40 % BOTH SAT & SUN ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  87  73  87 /  60  50  30  40
FMY  74  90  74  88 /  60  50  30  40
GIF  73  87  71  88 /  60  50  30  40
SRQ  74  87  73  87 /  60  50  30  40
BKV  69  87  67  89 /  60  30  20  20
SPG  76  86  75  87 /  60  50  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...09
LONG TERM/AVIATION...88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
453 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-080900-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
453 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.
WIND GUST TO 40 MPH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMPA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
957 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006

FLZ060-062-071500-
CHARLOTTE-SARASOTA-
957 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006

...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE UPPER REACHES OF
CHARLOTTE HARBOR...

THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT PUNTA
GORDA...PORT CHARLOTTE...NORTH PORT AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...UNTIL 1100
AM EDT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE...AND
SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BEFORE 11 AM.
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
&&
SHOULD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AN URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY MAY
BE ISSUED.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1107 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006

FLZ052-071700-
POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN
1107 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006

...STRONG STORMS WITH BLINDING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS HEADED FOR
POLK COUNTY...

A SMALL BUT POTENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IN POLK COUNTY THROUGH THE
LUNCH HOUR. THE STORMS WILL REACH WESTERN POLK COUNTY...INCLUDING
LAKELAND BARTOW AND FORT MEADE...BY NOON. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL POLK COUNTY INCLUDING LAKE WALES...WINTER
HAVEN AND AUBURNDALE BEFORE 1 PM.

RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH...BLINDING
RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO FOR 15 MINUTES IN ANY ONE
LOCATION...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOTORISTS
PLANNING LUNCHTIME TRIPS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE THEM UNTIL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER THE LINE PASSES.
&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER WARNINGS OR FLOOD ADVISORIES.

BSG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1200 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     WATER SPOUT      15 W HUDSON             28.36N 82.95W
07/07/2006                   XXX                XX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WELL DEFINED WATERSPOUT DISSIPATED AT 1150 AM. DURATION
            ESTIMATED.

&&

BSG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1210 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     WATER SPOUT      3 NE FEATHER SOUND      27.94N 82.62W
07/07/2006                   XXX                XX   AIRPLANE PILOT

            REPORTED BY CESSNA 172 WHILE APPROACHING AIRPORT.

&&

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
149 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006

FLZ050-051-071900-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-
149 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006

...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL AFFECT PINELLAS AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES
UNTIL 3 PM...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN...WILL
AFFECT SAINT PETERSBURG...TAMPA AND INTERSTATE 75 IN HILLSBOROUGH
COUNTY. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS HEADING TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE
EVENING.

NOAH