Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WGUS72 KTBW 031900
FFSTBW

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

FLC103-031945-
PINELLAS-
200 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN PINELLAS
COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM EST...

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...
  SEMINOLE.
  SAINT PETERSBURG.
  PINELLAS PARK.
  LARGO.
  CLEARWATER.


AT 200 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
RAINFALL RATES OF THREE INCHES PER HOUR FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 
WARNED AREA.  A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS FROM TAMPA TO 18 
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MADIERA BEACH.  MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED APPROXIMATELY 12 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN 
TODAY IN THE PINELLAS PARK AREA...WITH ABOUT A 10 MILE WIDE BAND OF 
8 TO 10 INCHES FROM MADIERA BEACH TO FEATHER SOUND ACROSS CENTRAL 
PINELLAS COUNTY.  AS OF 2 PM...ST PETERSBURG CLEARWATER AIRPORT HAD 
MEASURED 7.14 INCHES OF RAIN.

AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINDER 
OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.  ANOTHER BURST OF 
TORRENTIAL RAIN IS CURRENTLY OVER MADIERA BEACH AND WILL BE 
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL PINELLAS COUNTY THROUGH 3 PM.  THE HEAVY 
RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AFTER 3 PM...AS THE 
TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AT THAT TIME.  

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE WARNED AREA.  NUMEROUS ROADS 
ARE UNDER WATER. ROOF FAILURE HAS BEEN REPORTED ON A NUMBER OF 
BUILDINGS.  FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOME HOMES...ESPECIALLY IN 
LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT CROSS FLOODED 
ROADWAYS OR STREAMS. IF NEARING A FLOOD AREA...TURN AROUND AND DRIVE 
TO HIGHER TERRAIN.

DONT BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN


&&

LAT...LON 2785 8286 2769 8272 2772 8262 2800 8268
      2800 8281

$$

13

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
930 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

...TORNADO WATCH FROM PASCO COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD INTO LEE COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM EST...

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
COAST WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FL THROUGH THE DAY...

.DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE SYSTEM DEVELOPED AROUND 730 AM EST OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND MOVED INLAND OVER WESTERN PASCO AND
NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FROM
PASCO COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO LEE COUNTY AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE AREA. A STRONG MCS EARLIER
PROMPTED A SVR ISSUANCE FOR PASCO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE EVENT IS DEPICTED BY A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF A MAIN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROVIDING ENOUGH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INLAND THROUGH THE
DAY. FALLING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MAIN FRONT BOUNDARY
AND INCREASING FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SCEC IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN MOST NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL INCREASE...POSSIBLY INTO THE
SCA RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT. OFFSHORE
WATERS MAY REACH THE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. AN SCA WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TODAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOCATIONS NEAR FAVORABLE WATER FETCH
(KPIE/KSPG/KSRQ) GUSTING PERHAPS TOWARD 30KT ONCE AGAIN.
LATER THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH LEFTOVER
MOISTURE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST COMBINED WITH
INCREASING JET DYNAMICS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE TAMPA
BAY AND SARASOTA TERMINALS AFTER 15Z...WITH PERHAPS SOME THUNDER IN
THE AFTERNOON.  MORE ORGANIZED RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ORGANIZES
FURTHER.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TORNADO WATCH FOR PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS...POLK...
     MANATEE...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...DESOTO...SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE
     AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EST.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING
              BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS FROM 20 TO 60 NM
              OFFSHORE AND FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT
              TO 20 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

              SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
              ALL OTHER WATERS EXCEPT FOR BONITA BEACH TO
              ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM.

&&

AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
505 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-031615-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
505 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LEVY...CITRUS...
SUMTER...HERNANDO...AND PASCO COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ALL POSSIBLE. ALSO...HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT WILL
MEAN THAT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS COULD BRING SOME INLAND FLOODING.
MOTORISTS SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR AREAS OF PONDING ON ROADWAYS AS
YOU CANNOT TELL IF THE ROADWAY UNDERNEATH HAS COLLAPSED.

FOR MARINERS...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ADVISORY CRITERIA
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR REGION. MARINERS
MAY WANT TO POSTPONE TRAVEL UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
READINGS MAY HIT THE FREEZING MARK MONDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

FLZ050>052-055>057-060-061-031615-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-
DE SOTO-
505 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...
POLK...MANATEE...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...SARASOTA...AND DESOTO COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

FOR MARINERS...EXPECT WINDS AT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA TODAY AND THEN ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR REGION. MARINERS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE
TRAVEL UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

THE STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WATERS MEANS THAT THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. THOSE SWIMMERS WHO
WANT TO VENTURE INTO THE WATERS TODAY ARE URGED TO SWIM AT
LIFEGUARDED BEACHES AND TO HEED THE ADVICE OF THE LOCAL BEACH PATROL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

FLZ062-065-031615-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
505 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY.

FOR MARINERS...EXPECT WINDS AT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA TODAY AND THEN ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR REGION. MARINERS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE
TRAVEL UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

THE STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WATERS MEANS THAT THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. THOSE SWIMMERS WHO
WANT TO VENTURE INTO THE WATERS TODAY ARE URGED TO SWIM AT
LIFEGUARDED BEACHES AND TO HEED THE ADVICE OF THE LOCAL BEACH PATROL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
MORNING. A SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG AND IN ANY INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
747 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

FLZ049>051-031415-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-PASCO-
747 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL AFFECT THE TAMPA BAY REGION...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IS MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH...AND WILL AFFECT THE TAMPA BAY REGION DURING THE MORNING RUSH
HOUR. IN PARTICULAR...MUCH OF PASCO AND PINELLAS COUNTY WILL SEE
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM EST. THIS LINE WILL
ALSO AFFECT HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE
LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. THIS STORM
WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
916 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

FLZ050-051-031530-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-
916 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL AFFECT THE TAMPA BAY REGION THIS MORNING...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH...WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION THROUGH 1030 AM EST. CITIES
IN THE PATH OF THE LINE OF STORMS INCLUDES TAMPA...SAINT
PETERSBURG...BRANDON...BLOOMINDALE...MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE...AND
MADEIRA BEACH. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

NP