Tornado Warning 35, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
850 AM EST WED NOV 15 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK REMAINS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD OF IT OVER AL/MS. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY
LIFTING NE THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT IT HAS REMAINED
GENERALLY FREE FROM CONVECTION THUS FAR. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...THE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AND ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR OUR SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LATER TODAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...S-SE WINDS CONTINUE TO
FRESHEN AND SHOULD REACH SCA LEVELS VERY SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...AN ACTIVE 12-18 HOUR PERIOD UPCOMING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF MIST/FOG ARE
BURNING OFF RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH LIFR CEIL/VIS LIFTING BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.  FROM KTLH TO KABY AND KVLD WILL EXPECT
GENERALLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
THICKENING MID/UPPER CLOUD DECK. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE CELLS IS OFF TO THE WEST OF KDHN AND KPFN AT
THIS TIME. WILL EXPECT THIS AREA TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR VIS/CEILS AND
TEMPO LIFR IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS AREA WILL PUSH EAST
INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS. A
SECOND ROUND OF STORMS IS LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE
WESTERN TERMINALS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE...THEN PUSHING EAST INTO THE REMAINING AREAS MIDDLE TO LATE
EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR VIS/CEILS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...WITH WIND DAMAGE AND FREQUENT LIGHTING THE MAIN
THREATS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN WITH GUSTY WINDS
SWITCHING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TODAY TO 10 PM FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...AND
     HOUSTON.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TODAY TO 10 PM FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...
     CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...
     EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...AND WORTH.

FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TODAY TO 10 PM FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TODAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...COASTAL WALTON...FRANKLIN...
     GULF...JEFFERSON...AND WAKULLA.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TODAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...COASTAL WALTON...FRANKLIN...AND
     GULF.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TODAY TO 7 AM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DIXIE...AND TAYLOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL LEGS UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY FOR GMZ750
     ...GMZ755...GMZ770 AND GMZ775.

GOULD/MROCZKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
557 AM EST WED NOV 15 2006

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ750-755-770-775-161100-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
457 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006 /557 AM EST WED NOV 15 2006/

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION TODAY. ALREADY THIS MORNING...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
MOVE EASTWARD. THESE STORMS WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE MORNING AND REACH SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND EVEN TORNADOES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE EVENING HOURS.
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A STRONG SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SQUALL LINE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AREAS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL BE AT RISK FOR COASTAL FLOODING
PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. DUE TO THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TIDES WILL LIKELY RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES DUE TO THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION DUE TO THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR STARTING LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE
ROUGH CONDITIONS ON LAKES AND INLAND BODIES OF WATER. SMALL BOATS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING IN THESE ROUGH AND DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS.

OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BECOME ESPECIALLY STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING. SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND LISTEN FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES...INCLUDING ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS THAT MAY
BE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE.

38-GODSEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
109 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006

FLZ007-151845-
INLAND WALTON-
1209 PM CST WED NOV 15 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR WALTON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CST

AT 1204 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FLORALA...OR 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CRESTVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (850) 942-8833. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

14-MROCZKA