Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
210 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WATCH OUT
FOR MOST OF CWA. MAIN THREAT OVER SE AL & SW GA...WHERE FACTORS
COMING TOGETHER THE BEST. GOOD DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON
HELPING DESTABILIZE THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...& WITH THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NE...A LOW OVER AL...& A WEAK FRONT BOUNDARY SW TO LA...WARM
SECTOR SET UP OVER THE CWA TODAY. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS &
LARGE HAIL. TORNADO THREAT LOW WITH LIMITED SHEAR. ONLY REAL FACTOR
MISSING IS GOOD JET DYNAMICS...LOW LEVEL JET ONLY AROUND 20 KNOTS...
OR WE COULD SEE MUCH MORE SEVERE WEATHER & POSSIBLE TORNADOES. WILL
SEE THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THIS AFTERNOON &
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING THE UPPER DYNAMICS & THE SURFACE SYSTEM
EAST BY 00Z...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST. BUT WILL TAPPER OFF
CONVECTION AFTER 00Z TO 06Z. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTED RAIN AREAS. ON MONDAY...THE BOUNDARY STALLS
OVER N FL...WITH A SOUTH FLOW OVER N FL...WHILE POSSIBLE NW OVER SE
AL & SW GA. SMALL POP ON MONDAY WITH VERY LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT
SOME SEA BREEZE FORMATION & AFTERNOON HEATING POSSIBLE. MONDAY NIGHT
THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA LIFTS NE AS A WARM FRONT & SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SO 20-30% POP WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST. TUESDAY BRINGS A MOSTLY DRY DAY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON & EVENING WITH MAINLY A SEA
BREEZE INITIATION. TEMPS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN MAIN AFTERNOON TO
EVENING WEDNESDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS. DRYING A BIT COOLER FOR FRIDAY & INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...WILL SEE WINDS & SEE COME UP A BIT WITH THE INCREASED
SOUTH FLOW...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN UP WITH NO CONCERNS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS OVER N FL THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH IFR
CIGS...HEAVY RAIN...REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THEN MAINLY VFR
OVERNIGHT...BUT AREAS OF IFR & PATCHY DENSE FOG IN AREAS WHERE RAIN
FELL. KDHN...KTLH...KABY WILL HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS. DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH
AFTERNOON ISOLATED TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  66 85 64 88 / 40 30 20 20
PANAMA CITY  70 83 69 85 / 50 30 20 20
DOTHAN       64 83 65 88 / 50 30 20 20
ALBANY       64 84 64 86 / 50 30 20 20
VALDOSTA     64 85 64 87 / 40 30 20 20
CROSS CITY   66 85 65 86 / 30 30 20 20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

RADAR...JM/KGG
AVIATION/FIRE WX...JM
PUBLIC/MARINE...MCT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
545 AM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ750-755-770-775-081000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2006 /545 AM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006/

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD
ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WHICH LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA TODAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME DAYTIME HEATING HAS OCCURRED. STRONG
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
GREATEST THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER IT MOVES INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH IT
IS STILL EARLY IN THE FORECAST...THIS COULD RESULT IN SEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE.

17-GOULD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
430 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

FLZ013-072115-
CALHOUN-
430 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY IN
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

AT 325 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES WEST OF BLOUNTSTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH. THE STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

ALSO...NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH
THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES
NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

7-TREXLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
443 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

FLZ027-072115-
WAKULLA-
443 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR WAKULLA COUNTY IN
NORTH FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

AT 441 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CRAWFORDVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS...AND IS ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

38-GODSEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
451 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

FLZ008-072130-
COASTAL WALTON-
451 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR WALTON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

AT 348 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU
CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

12-WATSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
456 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

FLZ018-072130-
JEFFERSON-
456 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY IN NORTH FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

AT 452 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES EAST OF WOODVILLE...OR 13 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SAINT MARKS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS...AND IS ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

38-GODSEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
514 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

FLZ028-072215-
TAYLOR-
514 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR TAYLOR COUNTY IN NORTH
FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

AT 508 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF
PERRY TO SAINT MARKS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PERRY BY 550 PM EDT.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND ARE ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF
NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

38-GODSEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
518 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

FLZ013-026-072200-
CALHOUN-LIBERTY-
518 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN CALHOUN AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT (500 PM CDT)

AT 508 PM EDT (408 PM CDT)...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BLOUNTSTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR
REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
TALLAHASSEE. OR YOU CAN ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE DIRECTLY AT 850-942-8833 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

18-WOOL