Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
150 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

.SYNOPSIS...STILL EXPECTING GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS & TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA...GIVEN ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THE TAE 12Z
SOUNDING IS QUITE MOIST & UNSTABLE WITH A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 2.20
INCHES...LI OF -7 & A CAPE OF 4185 J/KG. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING FOR
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPS THINGS QUITE
UNSTABLE. IN THE VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...GOOD CU FIELD SETTING
UP...WITH A SEA BREEZE BEING PINED A BIT TO THE COAST...& NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR INLAND. CURRENT LIKELY POPS MAY BE ABOUT 10
PERCENT TOO HIGH...BUT WILL HOLD AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
SETTLED BACK TO THE MISS VALLEY...WITH A N-NE UPPER FLOW OVER THE
CWA...WHICH WILL TAKE ANY STORMS TO THE S-SW. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
LOW WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS & CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY).
ON WEDNESDAY...POP FORECAST WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH EXPECTED IN PLACE
MOIST & UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...HEATING OF THE DAY...A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...& THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. CURRENT LIKELY POP LOOKS GOOD PER MAV
GUIDANCE. MET GUIDANCE SIMILAR FOR N FL LOCATIONS...WHILE MUCH LOWER
FOR SE AL...& IN BETWEEN FOR SW GA. INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEX CONTINUES WEST...& A TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE NE U.S. SURFACE
TROUGH HOLDS ON OVER THE SE U.S. & THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP POP
VALUES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL COME DOWN A BIT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SETTLES MORE WEST...BRING VALUES BACK CLOSER TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY).
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DOES MOVE MORE WEST...AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP
FOR THE SE U.S...WHICH THE GFS IS INDICATING ENERGY IN THE STREAM TO
MAKE IT TO THE CWA...& CONSEQUENTLY KEEP POPS AROUND OR A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL. SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH BUILDS IN OVER THE EAST COAST. THE TROUGH FINALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND POPS DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE AND SOME DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS & SEAS WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED WITH 1-2 FT NEAR
SHORE...2-3 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS E-SE TODAY...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A MORE S-SW FLOW 5-10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY A W-SW FLOW IS EXPECTED. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-15
KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS & TSTMS DEVELOPING. STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE STORMS
FROM THE NE TO THE SW. USED TEMPO GROUPS WITH EXPECTED IFR WITH
STRONGER TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VSBYS TO
2-4 NM...& AT TIMES CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING. AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN & DISSIPATE. THEN MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT FOG. WINDS MAINLY NE-E 5-10 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT & VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNSET WITH SEA
BREEZE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES REMAIN HIGH. NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  75 94 75 92 / 20 50 40 60
PANAMA CITY  78 91 78 90 / 20 50 40 60
DOTHAN       75 94 75 91 / 20 50 40 60
ALBANY       75 95 75 92 / 20 50 40 60
VALDOSTA     75 94 75 92 / 20 50 40 60
CROSS CITY   74 93 75 90 / 30 50 30 50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KGG
PUBLIC/MARINE...MCT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
425 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ750-755-770-775-090830-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
325 AM CDT TUE AUG 8 2006 /425 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006/

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
MORNING OVER FLORIDA AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
ENHANCES ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH THE SEA BREEZE. MOST OF THESE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT A FEW MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S EXPECTED OVER MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RATHER HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD MONITOR UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD SOME STORMS BECOME SEVERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE.

MCNATT

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