Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006

CORRECTED WWA SECTION FOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.SYNOPSIS...ON GOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST & WEAKEN. A
FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WITH MINIMAL ROTATION BEING MONITORED...BUT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. MAIN INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE.
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAIN CONCERN.  RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN FROM A
FEW TENTHS TO OVER AN INCH...WITH MINIMAL FLOODING CONCERNS. EXPECT
THE AREA TO CONTINUE EAST...& MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE
CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POP GOING THIS EVENING SW
GA & FL BIG BEND...ENDING OVER SE AL & FL PANHANDLE. SHORT-RANGE
MODELS HAVE LIFT PUSHING EAST FROM 00Z-06Z...& THIS TIMING LOOKS
GOOD. THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN UP TO SCA LEVELS...& THIS WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT...THEN LOWER FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LIFT PULLS NE BETWEEN 00-06Z & WILL TAKE THE PRECIP WITH
IT. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MILD TEMPS IN THE 50S.
KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW
SETTLES OVER THE MISS VALLEY WITH SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW. THE MODELS ARE NOW MORE IN-LINE WITH FORMING A SURFACE LOW
OVER AL TO GA...THEN LIFTING IT OUT TO THE NE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND TO THE 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW CONTINUES NE...AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS & DRIER CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEN A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM IN THE NW FLOW FOR MONDAY...WITH SOME CLOUDS & SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN. THEN WE HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN
U.S...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS & SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TONIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER TO SCEC ON FRIDAY AS THE OTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY STAY AT SCA. ON SATURDAY...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN...THEN LOWERING TO SCEC OR BELOW ON
SUNDAY. THEN SOME ELEVATION...ESPECIALLY THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE A RED FLAG DAY ON SUNDAY FOR OUR INLAND FL
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA SITES.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ALONG WITH IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS. THE STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  56 73 53 63 / 40 20 40 20
PANAMA CITY  59 72 52 61 / 20 20 40 20
DOTHAN       52 70 50 58 / 20 20 40 20
ALBANY       53 72 49 57 / 30 20 40 20
VALDOSTA     57 74 54 60 / 60 20 40 20
CROSS CITY   60 74 57 65 / 70 20 40 20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN OUT TO 60NM.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FLZ15-18-27-28-34 UNTIL 5 AM EST FRI.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...TB
PUBLIC/MARINE...MCT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
534 AM EST THU FEB 2 2006

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION...

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-031100-
BAKER GA-BAY FL-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-
CALHOUN FL-CLAY GA-COASTAL WALTON FL-COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-
DALE AL-DECATUR GA-DIXIE FL-DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-FRANKLIN FL-
GADSDEN FL-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-GULF FL-HENRY AL-HOLMES FL-HOUSTON AL-
INLAND WALTON FL-IRWIN GA-JACKSON FL-JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL-
LANIER GA-LEE GA-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-LOWNDES GA-MADISON FL-MILLER GA-
MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-TERRELL GA-
THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WAKULLA FL-WASHINGTON FL-WORTH GA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...ADEL...ALBANY...APALACHICOLA...
ASHBURN...BAINBRIDGE...BLAKELY...BLOUNTSTOWN...BONIFAY...CAIRO...
CALLAWAY...CAMILLA...CARRABELLE...CHIPLEY...COLQUITT...COTTONWOOD...
CRAWFORDVILLE...CROSS CITY...CUTHBERT...DALEVILLE...DAWSON...
DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...DONALSONVILLE...DOWNTOWN DOTHAN...ELBA...
ENTERPRISE...FITZGERALD...FORT GAINES...FORT RUCKER...GENEVA...
GEORGETOWN...HEADLAND...LAKELAND...LEESBURG...MADISON...MARIANNA...
MAYO...MONTICELLO...MORGAN...MOULTRIE...NASHVILLE...NEWTON...
OCILLA...OZARK...PANAMA CITY...PANAMA CITY BEACH...PELHAM...PERRY...
PORT ST. JOE...PUTNEY...QUITMAN...SANTA ROSA BEACH...ST. MARKS...
STEINHATCHEE...SYLVESTER...TALLAHASSEE...THOMASVILLE...TIFTON...
VALDOSTA AND VERNON
534 AM EST THU FEB 2 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH WESTERNMOST AREAS
BY DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF THE REGION IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE SEEN IN
MANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

IN ADDITION TO THESE THREATS...DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND FRANKLIN COUNTY BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AFTER THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG
BEND.

A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
WITH THE APPROACHING SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

38-GODSEY

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