Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
145 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE W OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS.
IN BETWEEN...A TROUGH REACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SRN
PLAINS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SERN AL/SWRN GA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. NELY
FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL BE LIGHT...ALLOWING INLAND
PENETRATION OF SEA BREEZE...HOWEVER MOISTURE RATHER SHALLOW FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS AFTN. THE FAVORED AREA FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER SERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. AMPLE INSOLATION
WILL PUSH THE MERCURY INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S...WHICH IS NEAR-RECORD
TERRITORY FOR A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WRN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES EWD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE NATION THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW. THE
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NEWD. THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY DRIFTS TO THE NE AND BECOME
STATIONARY OVER OUR AL/GA ZONES THIS WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
1000-700 MB WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER AS WELL. ON FRIDAY...THE FLOW
WILL STILL BE ENE 5-10 KTS (REGIME 2)...SIMILAR TO TODAY. DUE TO
INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGE AND BELOW CLIMO PWAT/CAPE...AFTN POPS
WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT LOW CHANCE OVER OUR ERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MID-UPPER 90S. ON SATURDAY...A MORE SELY
FLOW (REGIME 1) AND INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPELLS A RETURN
TO NEAR CLIMO POPS. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER PCPN
COVERAGE...TEMPS FALL BACK TO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF STALL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO CUT OFF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME...THOUGH THE GFS IS
TYPICALLY MORE MOIST THAN THE ECMWF. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND AN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP OUR POPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO (WHICH IS ABOUT 40 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON) THRU THE
PERIOD. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS WITH WINDS AND
SEAS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE BRIEFLY HIGHER
NEAR THE COAST DURING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. POP
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT VCTS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
ON FRIDAY...BRIEF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AT DHN...ABY...AND VLD. POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP MIXING OF LOWER DEW POINT AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE
RH VALUES TO PLUNGE TO CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTN FOR THE NERN FL
PANHANDLE AND THE FL BIG BEND (AWAY FROM THE COAST). SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW POINTS FRIDAY AFTN WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  74 97 75 92/ 10 20 20 40
PANAMA CITY  77 95 78 91/ 10 20 20 40
DOTHAN       74 97 75 92/ 10 20 20 40
ALBANY       74 98 75 93/ 10 20 20 40
VALDOSTA     73 97 74 94/ 10 30 20 40
CROSS CITY   74 95 74 92/ 20 30 20 40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
     JACKSON...CALHOUN...GADSDEN...LEON...JEFFERSON...MADISON
     ...LIBERTY...WAKULLA...TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE...AND DIXIE

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...WOOL/MANNING
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
REST OF DISCUSSION...JAMSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ750-755-770-775-280745-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
234 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2006 /334 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006/

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A STORM OR TWO
COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON SO THE HEAT
INDEX WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE.
HOWEVER...NORMAL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO GUARD AGAINST HEAT
STRESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE.

FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
804 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

GAZ160-280030-
LOWNDES-
804 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR LOWNDES COUNTY IN
NORTH FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

AT 800 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST VALDOSTA...OR 9 MILES
EAST OF QUITMAN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN...DANGEROUS AND
CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

7-TREXLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
808 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

FLZ029-034-280115-
DIXIE-LAFAYETTE-
808 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE
COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

AT 804 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG THE COUNTY LINES OF LAFAYETTE
AND DIXIE...TO GILCHRIST COUNTY. THE STORMS WERE DRIFTING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER THE COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR. THE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...NEARLY
CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL
HAIL. RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.

7-TREXLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
814 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

GAZ129-146-280115-
COLQUITT-TIFT-
814 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR COLQUITT AND TIFT
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

AT 812 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NORMAN PARK...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MOULTRIE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN...NEARLY
CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. RESIDENTS
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

7-TREXLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
829 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     HAIL             VALDOSTA                30.85N 83.28W
07/27/2006  E0.75 INCH       LOWNDES            GA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            PENNY SIZE HAIL FALLING NOW IN VALDOSTA.

&&

GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VALDOSTA                30.85N 83.28W
07/27/2006                   LOWNDES            GA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES INTO POWERLINES ON SAINT AUGUSTINE ROAD. ALSO A
            TREE INTO A HOUSE ON OAKDALE DRIVE IN VALDOSTA.

&&

GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
841 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             2 NW VALDOSTA           30.87N 83.30W
07/27/2006  E1.75 INCH       LOWNDES            GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL FALLING NOW IN
            NORTHWEST VALDOSTA.

&&

GODSEY