Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
145 PM EDT SAT JUN 03 2006

.SYNOPSIS... SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SE THROUGH THE CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
SE FL BIG BEND AND THE COASTAL WATERS. PLENTY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR IS ALSO RUSHING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...SO THE
PROSPECT FOR ANY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS
BLEAK. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NW AT 10
TO 15 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AFTER AN EARLY TASTE OF SUMMERTIME SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION THIS PAST WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPRESSIVE EARLY
JUNE COLD FRONT WILL SPELL A RETURN TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ON DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW. WITH PWS FALLING WELL BELOW 1 INCH AND SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING
BELOW 60 DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL
HAVE TOO MUCH DIFFICULTY TO BECOME CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE UNTIL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN BY MID WEEK. THIS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
RESULT IN PLEASANTLY COOL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...POSSIBLY REACHING
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY
KEEPING THE AREA DRY. BUT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST WITH DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE FRONTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY...BUT BECOMING MORE HUMID LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...THE 10 TO 15 KT NW WINDS OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MIGHT BE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE N.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL
BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR
CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR AT THE VLD TAF SITE IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH THE PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR...A RETURN TO RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR FL BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE SUN AND MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   64  93  62  93  / 05  05  05  05
PANAMA CITY   68  90  67  91  / 05  05  05  05
DOTHAN        62  92  63  91  / 05  05  05  05
ALBANY        63  91  65  91  / 05  05  05  05
VALDOSTA      64  92  64  91  / 10  10  05  05
CROSS CITY    65  94  63  93  / 10  10  05  05

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING INLAND PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND SUN
     AFTN.
     FIRE WX WATCH ALL ZONES MON AFTN.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
LONG TERM...GODSEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
605 AM EDT SAT JUN 3 2006

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ750-755-770-775-041015-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
505 AM CDT SAT JUN 3 2006 /605 AM EDT SAT JUN 3 2006/

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. IN THESE
LOCATIONS...SOME STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE.

38-GODSEY