Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
745 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY ACROSS LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS 75 TO 80 AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW 50S. WINDS GENERALLY S/SW AROUND 10 MPH SRN
THIRD...EAST TO WEST CENTRAL 5 TO 10 MPH TWO THIRDS AND NORTH 5 MPH
NRN MOST ZONES. THIS REFLECTS NWD DRIFT OF SHALLOW SEA BREEZE NOW
MOVING N OF FLA BORDER.

LARGE DEEP LYR CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (WITH UPPER CUTOFF LOW)
CENTERED OVER NRN ILLINOIS CONTS TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF WEATHER ACROSS ERN CONUS. IMPULSES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
ROTATE BENEATH THE LOW IN THE NWLY FLOW AROUND BASE OF TROUGH FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. ONE IMPULSE KICKED UP EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL ALA AND SEWD INTO NRN MOST GA
ZONES..BUT AS PRECIP MOVED INTO DRIER AIR (DEW POINTS IN LOW 50S)
COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED. UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT S/SE TO OHIO VALLEY WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION TO SRN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY HELPING TO DRAG
COLD FRONT SEWD AND TO ACROSS CWA ON MONDAY. MODELS CONT TO SLOW
DOWN FRONT WITH FROPA AND ASSOCD PRECIP COMING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF FRONT FOCUSING ON N HALF AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS S HALF AS FRONT SAGS SWD AND ACROSS CWA.

ACTIVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS SRN TENN VALLEY IN
RESPONSE TO NEXT IMPULSE AIDED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND H5 70 KT JET
(ALONG SW-S-E PERIPHERY OF LOW) YIELDING 1500-2000 J/KG CAPES
WORKING ON NWD RETREATING FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE SWD
TOMORROW INTO AT LEAST OUR NRN CWA WITH H5 50-60 KT WINDS. 24 HR DEW
COMPARISON SHOWS THAT ALTHO LOCAL AIRMASS REMAINS ON DRY SIDE...DEW
POINTS RUNNING 6 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY. THUS
AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOISTEN UP PROVIDING FUEL FOR TOMORROW. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH BOW ECHO AND SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. SPC DAY 2 HAS ALL OF GA AND MOST OF OUR FLA
ZONES IN SLIGHT RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION (OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) FROM ABOVE SRN TENN VALLEY WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY HOLD TOGETHER AND BRUSH OUR NW
ZONES BY SUNRISE. WILL GO WITH 20 PCT POPS SE ALA AND SW GA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN VERY LOW THIS EVENING. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH PREVIOUS SHOWER COMPLEX MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. NEXT BATCH OF CLOUD COVER
IS NOW OVER EASTERN MS AND CENTRAL AL AND WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. DONT EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY...BUT WILL START TO SEE SOME
CIGS AOA 10KFT WESTERN TERMS BY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH LOWERING CIGS TO AROUND 8KFT BY
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL BKN050 AT OUR NORTHERN TERMS. POP CHANCES
STILL TO LOW TO GO WITH TEMPOS JUST YET...BUT DID CONTINUE PROB30S
FOR DHN AND ABY WHERE POP CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GULF MOISTURE RETURN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL PRECLUDE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOCK
AVIATION...GODSEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
524 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ750-755-770-775-141000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
424 AM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006 /524 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006/

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA. WHILE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED...
THOSE THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND POSSIBLY
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. UNLIKE THE LAST SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODES...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OR MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNSET. FURTHER SOUTH...THE AIR OVER NORTH
FLORIDA WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES.
THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SUNDAY ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES. A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS ON
MONDAY...AND MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF HEADING OUT INTO
THE GULF WATERS. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY...BUT IS NOT LIKELY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE WEB SITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE.

18-WOOL