Red Flag Warning 93, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 090018
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
818 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2006

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COUNTIES AND BIG BEND COUNTIES
AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES...

.DISCUSSION...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN RED FLAG
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL OF THE INLAND PANHANDLE AND MOST OF
THE BIG BEND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FLZ011-016>019-090830-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0093.000000T0000Z-060709T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0094.060709T1700Z-060710T0100Z/
JACKSON-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-
718 PM CDT SAT JUL 8 2006 /818 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2006/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/
TO 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ SUNDAY...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT THIS EVENING FOR
JACKSON...GADSDEN... LEON...JEFFERSON AND MADISON COUNTIES IN
NORTH FLORIDA...

. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/
TO 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ SUNDAY...DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT.

$$

FLZ007-009-010-013-026>029-090830-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0094.060709T1700Z-060710T0100Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-CALHOUN-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-
LAFAYETTE-
718 PM CDT SAT JUL 8 2006 /818 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2006/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/
TO 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ SUNDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/ TO
9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ SUNDAY...DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT.

$$

DUVAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
258 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2006

.SYNOPSIS...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS THAT THE WESTERLIES HAVE
RETREATED TO THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND SRN CANADA. A CUTOFF LOW IS
SPINNING NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. A LARGE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A WAVY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND THE NRN GULF. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS
FILTERED INTO THE DEEP SE BEHIND THIS FRONT IN NE FLOW AROUND A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW CLIMO TONIGHT, INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS MANY INLAND LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING 62 FOR THE TLH
AIRPORT, JUST 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD LOW OF 60. WE ARE ALSO
FORECASTING JUST ONE DEGREE ABOVE THE RECORD AT AAF (67). BOTH
RECORDS WERE SET IN 1972. LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE NELY ON SUN
AND THE PW WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO, SO WE ARE FORECASTING ANOTHER
DRY DAY. WILL INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR MON FOR THE SE BIG BEND AS LOW TO
MID LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE ESE. THE TRADE OFF FOR THE DRY
AIR IS AFTERNOON HEAT. MOST INLAND AREAS WILL SEE MID 90S BOTH DAYS,
BUT THIS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR JULY.

.LONG TERM...TUE THROUGH SAT.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE BERMUDA RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH AN
INCREASING EAST FLOW. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...&
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE FORMATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER N FL. PRECIP WATER
VALUES REBOUND BACK TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE
GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH MID-WEEK. OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOES HOLD OVER THE SE U.S & THE CWA...SO COVERAGE WILL
BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT. NOT MUCH IN THE TROPICS ALSO...EXCEPT A
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE THAT COULD AFFECT FL & THAT WOULD HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY MID-WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS MAKE IT TO THE
SE U.S. IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE AROUND NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE E 10 TO 15 KT TODAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS A BIT TOO FAST TO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO
REALLY GET GOING, ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME VEERING ALONG THE COAST
OF THE WRN LEG LATE IN THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH E TO NE WINDS AT NIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING HOURS...SHIFTING TO ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY DIPPED TO MVFR VSBY THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SUN MORNING FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RH AT MAI DIPPED TO 29 PERCENT AS OF 18Z, SO WE
WILL NEED TO PUT OUT A LATE RFW FOR THE FL COUNTIES BORDERING GA FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO BE UPGRADING MOST OF THE
WATCH AREA TO A WARNING FOR SUN, EXCEPT DIXIE COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  62 94 66 94 / 00 00 00 10
PANAMA CITY  70 91 72 91 / 00 00 00 05
DOTHAN       64 93 70 94 / 00 05 00 05
ALBANY       63 93 67 94 / 00 00 00 10
VALDOSTA     62 93 65 94 / 00 00 00 10
CROSS CITY   63 91 67 92 / 00 05 00 20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL SUNSET TODAY FOR FLZ11-16>19.
     RED FLAG WARNING FOR SUN AFTERNOON ALL BUT FLZ12-14-15-34.

&&

AVIATION...BLOCK
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MCT
REST OF DISCUSSION...WOOL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
549 AM EDT SAT JUL 8 2006

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ750-755-770-775-091000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
449 AM CDT SAT JUL 8 2006 /549 AM EDT SAT JUL 8 2006/

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
FLORIDA EASTERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE
AND RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...AND BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. WITH
THE DRIER CONDITIONS...SOME POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT OF WILD FIRES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO...THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...AND MAINLY OVER NORTH FLORIDA...WITH ANY SEA BREEZE
FORMATION. NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE.

7-TREXLER