Red Flag Warning 76, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 221803
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
203 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL AROUND SUNSET FOR
INLAND AREAS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE DUE TO LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO MARGINAL DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH DISPERSION INDICES OVER 75...

.DISCUSSION...AFTER ONE MORE WIDESPREAD RED FLAG EVENT TODAY...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THEREFORE...ONLY EASTERN AREAS ARE ARE EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

FLZ019-028-029-034-230000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FW.A.0066.060523T1800Z-060523T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0076.000000T0000Z-060523T0000Z/
MADISON-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
203 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS 
 ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

FLZ007-009>011-013-016>018-026-027-230000-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0076.000000T0000Z-060523T0000Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-
103 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 /203 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2006/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES.

$$

18-WOOL

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 230023
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
823 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO MARGINAL DURATIONS
OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH DISPERSION INDICES OVER
75...

.DISCUSSION...AFTER ONE MORE WIDESPREAD RED FLAG EVENT TODAY...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THEREFORE...ONLY EASTERN AREAS ARE ARE EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

FLZ019-028-029-034-231130-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0076.000000T0000Z-060523T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0066.060523T1800Z-060523T2300Z/
MADISON-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
823 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED
FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

FLZ007-009>011-013-016>018-026-027-230130-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0076.000000T0000Z-060523T0000Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-
723 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 /823 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2006/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

PS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
430 AM MON MAY 22 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
06Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AMPLIFIED LATE
SPRING PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH H5 TROUGHING ALONG BOTH EAST AND
WEST COAST RIDGING PUSHING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE. TWO DISTINCT UPPER
LOWS CAN BE SEEN OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH ONE SINKING SOUTH JUST OF
THE BC COAST AND ANOTHER ABOUT THE MAKE IT WAY ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE EAST COAST TROUGH IS HIGHLIGHTED BY TWO CLOSE
PROXIMITY UPPER LOWS PIN-WHEELING AROUND ONE ANOTHER OVER NEW
ENGLAND AN QUEBEC. IN ADDITION...WEAK UPPER LOW IS NOTED IN THE
WESTERN GOMEX. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEAK. EXACT INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM ON OUR WEATHER IS
STILL UNCLEAR TOWARD THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...BUT IN THE SHORT
TERM...PERIODS OF INCREASED HIGH CLOUD ARE LIKELY TO MOVE UP OVER
THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GOMEX. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST TO RIDE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK...PARTIALLY BREAKING DOWN THE MID U.S. RIDGE AND
DEAMPLIFYING THE PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GOMEX WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS IS FORECAST TO
VERY SLOWLY EASE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST
INDICATIONS WOULD BE FOR THIS FRONT TO BACK-DOOR INTO OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS GENERALLY IN THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
THERE IS SOME LIMITED MID AND UPPER LEVEL Q-G FORCING...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GOMEX AND VERY LOW
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THE CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION...ONCE AGAIN
LOOK SPARES AT BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RISING UP INTO
THE LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN. ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TO CUT TEMPS BACK JUST A BIT. THE FORECAST DOES NOT CHANGE
MUCH INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THINGS ARE NOT A DRY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WITH THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SEA-BREEZE. STILL MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE ISOLATED. MET/MAV GUIDANCE BOTH SHOWING SOME
CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE USUAL SPOTS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY-MONDAY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS TOUGH TO CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
RIDGE STAYING PUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GOMEX. GFS HOLD ON TO THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF AND SENDS SOME PIECE OF IT TOWARD
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS BECOME VERY MOIST AND
GENEROUS WITH ITS QPF AT THIS TIME. THINKING THAT THIS IS MOST
LIKELY FAR OVERDONE AND ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.
AS THE PROGRESS INTO FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME.
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH STAYS IN PLACE...WENT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S COMMON.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW CAUTION
LEVELS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES MAY BE LOCALLY
GUSTY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...LOOK FOR MVFR VSBY AND CIGS BECOMING
LOCALLY IFR...TO DEVELOP AGAIN AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT PFN WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK. THE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
EVAPORATE BY MID MORNING IN ALL LOCATIONS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN
BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR INLAND AREAS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE DUE
TO DURATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. IN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  92 64 90 67/ 10 10 20 10
PANAMA CITY  87 70 87 71/ 10 10 20 10
DOTHAN       93 66 90 68/ 10 10 10 10
ALBANY       93 67 90 66/ 10 10 10 10
VALDOSTA     93 64 90 66/ 10 10 20 10
CROSS CITY   91 63 90 66/ 10 10 20 10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY 1 PM TIL 8 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     FOLLOWING ZONES:CALHOUN...DIXIE...GADSDEN...HOLMES...
     INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA AND WASHINGTON.
&&

AVIATION/FIRE WX...DUVAL
PUBLIC/MARINE/LONG TERM...MROCZKA
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MROCZKA