Red Flag Warning 75, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 211838
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
238 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR INLAND AREAS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE DUE
TO DURATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR 
INLAND AREAS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE DUE TO DURATION OF LOW 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY... 

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. 

FLZ007-009>011-013-016>019-026>029-034-220000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FW.A.0065.060522T1800Z-060523T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KTAE.FW.W.0075.000000T0000Z-060522T0000Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
138 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 /238 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006/

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...
 
THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING DUE TO DURATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING DUE TO DURATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED
FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

GOREE

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 220007
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
807 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
EVENING FOR INLAND AREAS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE
DUE TO DURATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

FLZ007-009>011-013-016>019-026>029-034-221130-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0075.000000T0000Z-060522T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0065.060522T1800Z-060523T0000Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
707 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006 /807 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED
FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

BARRY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 AM SUN MAY 21 2006

...HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL AREA DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER
PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT A FEW SITES. TEMPS FROM UPPER 60S
NORTH AND SE BIG BEND TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE. DEW POINTS MID 60S NORTH
TO NEAR 70 PANHANDLE COAST. 24 HR TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON
INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN AREA AIRMASS. WINDS GENERALLY W/SE 4-9
MPH.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PIX...THE BLOCKY LONG WAVE PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS N AMERICA. AT UPPER LEVELS...WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROF EXTENDING
FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. STRONG H5-H2 LOW OVER
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO MOVE E/NE YIELDING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS SE
CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS BASE OF TROF BUT
WELL NORTH OF CWA. A WEAK UPPER LOW RESIDES OVER THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING PLACING THE SERN U.S. UNDER A DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT. RIDGE TO
MOVE INTO CNTRL PLAINS TOMORROW AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS N OF THE AREA
AND THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS SLIGHTLY INTO TOMORROW.

AT SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM N OF THE BAHAMAS W
ACROSS FL INTO THE GULF. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SC COAST WWD INTO THE OZARKS...SRN KS BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER
ERN COLORADO. SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT IN RESPONSE TO ABOVE
MID AND UPPER FEATURES. RIDGING OVER SE PREVENTING SURFACE
LOWS/FRONTS FROM ADVANCING SWD. ANY PRECIP WILL BE SEABREEZE
INDUCED...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. WITH SLIGHT SW COMPONENT...
REGIONAL AIRMASS A LITTLE MOISTER TODAY AT LEAST AT LOWEST LEVELS
WITH SE TO NW GRADIENT...I.E. TLH WITH 1.33 PWAT...BMX 0.91 PWAT AND
JAN 0.88 PWAT. IN SUM...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH W/SE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WILL INSERT PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND TOMORROW MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. SMOKE FROM LIBERTY COUNTY FIRE COULD ALSO IMPACT VSBYS AND
WILL BE MONITORED. WEAKER GRADIENT WINDS TODAY YIELDS STRONGER
SEABREEZE AND ANY SMOKE FROM LIBERTY COUNTY FIRE (SEE BELOW) MAY
SPREAD N WITH SEABREEZE AND RETARD RISE OF TEMPS. ALTHO DISPERSION
SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT IMPACT. STILL  MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW RECORD LEVELS... I.E.RECORD FOR MAY 21ST IS 98 (1938)AT TLH.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BY DAY WITH LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MOST
INLAND AREAS TODAY AND MON.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A
SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH AXIS INCHING NWD EACH
DAY AND EXTENDING INTO THE NE GULF...ALLOWING SOME INLAND
PENETRATION OF ATLC SEA BREEZE BUT KEEPING OUR AREA IN WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. ON WED...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK H5 VORTICITY MAX INVCNTY CWA SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE  A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY WRN CWA. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE Q-G FORCING WILL BE LACKING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FINALLY INCH UP TO MORE
THAN AN INCH BY LATE WEEK. AT THAT TIME...WEAK MID LEVEL TROFFINESS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND A WEAK TROF FROM A WEST TO EAST MOVING
LOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ALL SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST
LOW SCT POPS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE W OR SW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW CAUTION. WILL BREAK UP
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE AS ENHANCED SEA BREEZE RESULTING IN LITTLE
HIGHER AFTERNOON AND MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT FOR NEARSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIKE LAST NIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS (BELOW 1K FT AGL)
ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...MAINLY FROM MAI TO JUST WEST OF TLH. HOWEVER...THIS AREA
IS EXPANDING AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS TLH AND DHN SOON. SMOKE
(FROM A FIRE IN LIBERTY COUNTY) AND LIGHT FOG ARE REDUCING
VISIBILITY AT TLH...AND WE ARE FORECASTING MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
VISIBILITY AT TLH THROUGH SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG ARE LIKELY AT DHN AND ABY...WHILE VLD WILL
HAVE PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITY WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. WE EXPECT
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT PFN...BUT THERE WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS
OCCASIONALLY SCATTERING OUT THROUGH SUNRISE. BY MID MORNING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LIBERTY COUNTY WILD FIRE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT...BUT A FEW GUSTS NEAR 18KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AT THE PEAK MIXING TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WILDFIRE HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTH CENTRAL LIBERTY
COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND THE DIVISION OF FORESTRY IS ON THE SCENE
ITS MAIN EFFECT FOR THE CWA OVERNIGHT WILL BE TO SEND SMOKE OFF TO
THE NE IN THE PREVAILING FLOW...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOWER VISIBILITIES
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. BASED ON SATURDAYS RH VALUES AND WITH
LOWER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE MOISTENING UP...WILL USE A BLEND OF
MAV/GFS RATHER THAN LOOPING OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM DRIEST MODEL.
STILL RED FLAG CONDS LOOK GOOD FOR ALL BUT BAY FRANKLIN AND GULF AND
IMMEDIATE COASTS OF OTHER COUNTIES. MONDAY MORE BORDERLINE AND WILL
DEFER TO NEXT SHIFT TO ISSUE ANY WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  95 60 92 63/ 05 05 05 05
PANAMA CITY  87 68 88 70/ 10 05 05 05
DOTHAN       92 66 92 67/ 00 00 05 05
ALBANY       94 65 94 67/ 00 00 05 05
VALDOSTA     94 64 93 65/ 05 00 05 05
CROSS CITY   92 60 91 63/ 10 00 05 10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY 2 PM TIL 9 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     FOLLOWING ZONES:CALHOUN...DIXIE...GADSDEN...HOLMES...
     INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA AND WASHINGTON.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WX...FOURNIER
PUBLIC/MARINE/LONG TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...BLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
530 AM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ750-755-770-775-201130-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006 /430 AM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006/

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...INCLUDING THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL LINGER IN A FEW SPOTS UNTIL AROUND 9 AM
EDT...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DESCRIBES TODAYS WEATHER. THERE IS
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COAST TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL AID IN THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FLORIDA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WARM DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE.

BLOCK