Red Flag Warning 130, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
245 AM EST THU DEC 7 2006

.SYNOPSIS...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS AT 07Z SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A
SECONDARY FRONT...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS PUSHING
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS OF 06Z.
LOCALLY...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPS ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE
FROM 15 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING.
RADARS INDICATE JUST A FEW PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...STRONG SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE TROUGH WILL BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
REPLACED WITH UPPER RIDGING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR TODAY AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS DRIVING THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. THIS WILL ALSO SEND THE FIRST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...THE ARCTIC FRONT IS SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL NOT BE MAKING MANY
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS OR ZONES. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN MOST OF OUR
FLORIDA ZONES AND GEORGIA ZONES ADJOINING THE FLORIDA BORDER FOR
TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
MAY BECOME BREEZY. WINDS MAY STAY UP IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR. WE DO EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WITH POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST GA
AND SE AL ZONES. WITH DEEP LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPS FRIDAY
AFTN WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EVEN UNDER ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. WHILE IT WONT BE AS BREEZY ON FRIDAY...WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL 5-10 DEGREES COLDER. WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE COLDEST TEMPS
OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT A HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH TEMPERATURES PLUNGING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT SEVERAL INLAND LOCATIONS WITH SEVERAL
RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING AND SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST...TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING MOST INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SLIDE TO OUR EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY BUT
NOT AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
WILL PUSH INTO OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO ADVISORY
LEVELS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC SURGE. WILL HAVE
TO PUSH THE TIMING OF THE SCA BACK ABOUT 5 HOURS WITH A START TIME
AROUND 2 PM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY AND
FALL BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME 3-5K ESPECIALLY DURING PREDAWN HOURS BUT
MOSTLY MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AS A RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT GRIDS NOW SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
ALL OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING GADSDEN AND LIBERTY COUNTIES
OF THE BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR SE
AL COUNTIES. THIS IS BASED ON EITHER LOW RH VALUES EXCEEDING
CRITICAL DURATIONS AND/OR LOW RH ALONG WITH SUPPORTING CRITICAL WIND
SPEEDS. THEN...LOOKS LIKE A NO BRAINER FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY SO WE ARE GOING AHEAD WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  62 27 50 18 59/ 20 00 00 00 00
PANAMA CITY  63 33 52 27 60/ 20 00 00 00 00
DOTHAN       58 24 48 23 59/ 00 00 00 00 00
ALBANY       60 24 50 18 58/ 00 00 00 00 00
VALDOSTA     64 27 50 20 59/ 20 00 00 00 00
CROSS CITY   65 28 52 21 62/ 30 10 00 00 00

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
     RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES FRIDAY.
GA...RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES FRIDAY.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING ALL PANHANDLE ZONES INCLUDING GADSDEN AND
     LIBERTY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
     RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES FRIDAY.
GM...SCA ALL ZONES FROM 2 PM EST /1PM CST TODAY THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
SHORT TERM/MARINE...BARRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
440 AM EST WED DEC 6 2006

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ750-755-770-775-070945-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
440 AM EST WED DEC 6 2006 /340 AM CST WED DEC 6 2006/

...A FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM EST
(7 AM CST)...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AFTER A CHILLY START WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP UNDER SUNNY SKIES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH LOWER 70S FOR THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
FILTERING INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GREATEST IMPACT WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE FELT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50 DEGREE MARK MOST LOCATIONS
AND THEN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL YEARS ARE EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY PLUNGE AS LOW AS THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THIS AIRMASS
WILL ALSO BE VERY DRY AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND TO
MORE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE.

22-BARRY