Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Sacramento, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 AM PST MON JAN 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. A BAND OF RAIN
EXTENDS THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA
SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARDS US THIS MORNING THE BAND OF
RAIN HAS BEEN DRAWN FURTHER NORTHWARD BACK OVER PARTS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH IN THAT AREA ABOVE
6000 FT THIS MORNING...BUT COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. SOME
OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAVING VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOTS OF SMALL HAIL. THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA OF RAIN MOVING
NORTHWARD COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC FOR SOME ROADWAY FLOODING AND
POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN MOTHERLODE AND NORTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING. WE WILL ISSUE AN URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. AT THE SAME TIME SNOW
LEVELS IN THE SIERRA-NEVADA WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. LOCALLY
HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY LOWER SNOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
THAT AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SYSTEM NEAR 40N AND 142W WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN INTERIOR CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
WITH THIS SYSTEM DO NOT LOOKS ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE FRONT POSSIBLE DOWN TO AROUND SACRAMENTO. A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM TO DRY THE REGION
OUT FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF STEADY RAIN PULLING BACK TO THE N AND IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
BACK INTO THE SAC/MHR/SMF AREAS BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. BRIEF
BREAK...SUCKER HOLE...WITH VFR CONDS WITH DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS
AND TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MOD PCPN IN THESE AREAS. BAND OF MOD-HVY
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS STALLED...MNLY FROM
MOD INTO SRN MOTHERLODE. CONDS MAY PERSIST THRU 20Z UNTIL MAIN VORT
MAX 31N/128W MOVES CLOSER TO COAST AND UPPER TROF SHIFTS UPPER JET
EWD. IFR WX IN CIGS/VSBYS AND HEAVY PPCN PERSIST OVER SIERNEV MNLY S
OF I-80. SN LVL ROUGHLY 6000 FEET.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN PLUMAS
COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.

HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WEST SLOPE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND MOTHERLODE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
830 AM PST SUN JAN 1 2006

CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-021500-
SHASTA LAKE AREA/NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN/EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-MOTHERLODE-
EAST FOOTHILLS/NORTH SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
830 AM PST SUN JAN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
STRONG WINDS. THIS STORM WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH LOWER SNOW
LEVELS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INLAND BY MIDDAY POSSIBLE CAUSING SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN CAUSE RISES ON SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KSTO - WSWSTO FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD STATEMENT............SEE WGUS86 KSTO - FLSSTO FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WGUS76 KSTO - NPWSTO FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRYING
TREND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
(LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/STO

/KJ