Alert archive / Florida / Tornado Watches in 2006
Tornado Watch 862
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 15, 2006, 11:41 PM EST for 24 counties in Florida. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 15, 2006, 11:41 PM EST (04:41 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 16, 2006, 3:00 AM EST
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 24 counties
Brevard County, FL, Charlotte County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Lake County, FL, Lee County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Marion County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Polk County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Sarasota County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Volusia County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 40%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 30%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 20%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
2 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 11:57 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TBW | Manatee, Pinellas | 33 min |
| Nov 16, 12:04 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TBW | Hillsborough | 26 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 52 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 234 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -62 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 960 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 128 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 169 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WWUS20 KWNS 160436
SEL2
SPC WW 160436
FLZ000-CWZ000-160800-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 862
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1140 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SARASOTA FLORIDA TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 860...WW 861...
DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR
TPA SHORTLY...THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND
FIELDS...WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HARTSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 7:03 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Dixie and 16 more | 57 min |
| Nov 15, 7:08 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval and 6 more | 8 hr |
| Nov 15, 9:32 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alachua, Brevard, Charlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Flagler and 21 more | 58 min |
| Nov 16, 12:32 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Nassau and 2 more | 58 min |
| Nov 16, 2:35 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brevard, Charlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Flagler, Hardee and 19 more | 55 min |
| Nov 16, 3:03 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Brevard, Charlotte, DeSoto, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands and 15 more | 8 hr |
| Nov 16, 8:12 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brevard, Charlotte, DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Indian River and 9 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.