Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 810

October 3, 200641 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Oct 3, 2006, 10:37 PM EDT for 41 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 3, 2006, 10:37 PM EDT (02:37 UTC)
Expired
Oct 4, 2006, 4:39 AM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 41 counties

Alcona County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Bay County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Huron County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

25 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 3, 10:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXBenzie, Leelanau, Manistee64 min
Oct 3, 10:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRLake22 min
Oct 3, 11:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXGrand Traverse, Wexford60 min
Oct 3, 11:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXKalkaska56 min
Oct 3, 11:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXManistee62 min
Oct 3, 11:57 PM EDTTornado WarningAPXManistee48 min
Oct 4, 12:17 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXWexford58 min
Oct 4, 12:44 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXManistee19 min
Oct 4, 12:49 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRMason56 min
Oct 4, 12:52 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRLake53 min
Oct 4, 1:05 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXMissaukee46 min
Oct 4, 1:07 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRROsceola53 min
Oct 4, 1:10 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXWexford21 min
Oct 4, 1:28 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXRoscommon43 min
Oct 4, 1:33 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRROceana47 min
Oct 4, 1:58 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXGladwin, Ogemaw37 min
Oct 4, 1:58 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXMidland77 min
Oct 4, 1:59 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRMecosta, Newaygo61 min
Oct 4, 2:00 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXSanilac46 min
Oct 4, 2:06 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXHuron54 min
Oct 4, 2:06 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRMuskegon34 min
Oct 4, 2:15 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXBay60 min
Oct 4, 2:35 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXSaginaw70 min
Oct 4, 2:50 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXTuscola55 min
Oct 4, 2:52 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXHuron40 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 2.6 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2006-10-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 448 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2006-10-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 21 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
448 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-231 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1044 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
105 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 3, 9:42 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntrim, Benzie, Clare, Clinton, Crawford, Gladwin and 24 more2 hr
Oct 4, 12:16 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Benzie and 37 more119 min
Oct 4, 3:07 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Benzie and 37 more53 min
Oct 4, 6:15 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Calhoun, Cass, Clinton, Eaton, Genesee and 10 more60 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2006Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.